Houston football 2022 season prediction, preview, awards, bowl game

Dana Holgorsen’s Houston football program is on a short list of who can win the Group of Five.

With one more season left before the Cougars join the Big 12, Dana Holgorsen and the rest of the Houston football program are aiming to come out on top and win the Group of Five one final time.

The Cougars will be joining the Big 12 next July along with the BYU Cougars, the Cincinnati Bearcats and the UCF Knights. While it remains to be seen how much longer the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns plan to hang around, this should be one competitive football conference for the time being. In the meantime, Houston has a bunch of winning to do this season.

Out and on the prowl at No. 27 on FanSided’s Preseason Top 50 Rankings, the Houston Cougars!

Houston football 2021 season in review

After making a bold choice to leave West Virginia for U of H in 2019, Holgorsen had yet to put forth a winning season in his first two years at Houston. Picked to finish fourth in The American, the Cougars came alive after losing the Texas Kickoff right down the road at NRG to Texas Tech. Following a 17-point defeat to Matt Wells’ then-Red Raiders, Houston went on a run like no other.

Houston picked up consecutive victories in non-conference play over city rival Rice and iconic HBCU powerhouse Grambling State. From there, the Cougars would not lose a single game in conference play. From Navy to Tulane to SMU to Temple, it was all W’s in what was a breakthrough year for Holgorsen’s program. After beating AAC defector UConn, they had to play Cincy in Nippert.

Although it was a 15-point road loss in the conference title bout to the soon-to-be playoff-bound Bearcats, it became crystal clear that Houston was going to be a problem next season. Despite playing a bowl game in another team’s home state, the Cougars won the Birmingham Bowl over Auburn, taking home arguably the greatest trophy this side of Lord Stanley’s Cup in Project Vulcan.

Auburn’s bowl preparations were a complete failure, but U of H does seem to feel good on the whole heading into next season, right? Right… Yeah, baby, yeah! Holgorsen was the Tigers’ fazha.

Previewing Houston offense for 2022 season

Returning starters (9): Clayton Tune (QB), Ta’Zhawn Henry (RB), KeSean Carter (WR), Nathaniel Dell (WR), Christian Trahan (TE), Patrick Paul (LT), Cam’Ron Johnson (LG), Jack Freeman (C), Tank Jenkins (RG)
Newcomers (4): Brandon Campbell (RB), Joseph Manjack IV (WR), Samuel Brown (WR), Tyler Johnson (RT)
Impact player: Nathaniel Dell (WR)

A big reason why Houston has such a good chance of potentially winning The American and the Group of Five is how many starters they return on both sides of the ball. The Cougars have somewhere around nine players with big-time experience on offense for them. Clayton Tune is back running the offense at quarterback, throwing the ball to Nathaniel Dell and Christian Trahan.

Given the way Holgorsen is building this team, Houston does take on plenty of transfers, many of whom played previously at the Power Five level. That is what it will take to best help them transition to moving up a tick once they join the Big 12 next year. Newcomers for the Cougars include running back Brandon Campell and wide receivers Joseph Manjack IV and Samuel Brown.

While Tune and Trahan stand out as well, the big playmaker to watch on offense is Dell in the slot. The former JUCO product arrived in Houston in 2020, making an immediate impact for the Cougars offense. He was an all-conference performer in his second season with the program a year ago. If Dell plays up to his standard, he could be one of the best wide receivers in college football in 2022.

Previewing Houston defense for 2022 season

Returning starters (10): Derek Parish (DE), Chidozie Nwankwo (NT), D’Anthony Jones (DE), Malik Robinson (LB), Donavan Mutin (LB), Art Green (CB), Gervarrius Owens (FS), Hassan Hypolite (SS), Alex Hogan (CB), Jayce Rogers (NB)
Newcomers (5): Nadame Tucker (DE), Trimarcus Cheeks (LB), Justice Ugo (CB), Moses Alexander (CB), Adbul-Lateef Audu (NB)
Impact player: Gervarrius Owens (FS)

As it is with the offense, Houston returns much of its starting defense from the 12-win team from a year ago. Though they have upwards of 10 players with significant playing time projecting towards starting roles, the two big standouts on that side of the ball are linebacker Donavan Mutin and free safety Gervarrius Owens. These are team leaders and necessary pieces for U of H to win the AAC.

The same sort of principle applies to the defense as does the offense. Yes, there are newcomers to the Cougars defense by way of the transfer portal, but none are in positions to start for them out of fall camp. Of course, injuries happen and guys will be thrust into the fold. Those key transfers include defensive end Nadame Tucker, cornerback Justice Ugo and linebacker Trimarcus Cheeks.

While one could argue for team captain Mutin to be the best player on the Cougars defense, let’s give the nod to Owens looking to wreak havoc in the Houston secondary. As with Mutin, Owens is up for several marquee awards. For the former Northeastern Oklahoma A&M standout, the sky is the limit for him in what could be his final season of college football. This defense might really fly.

Houston football players awards watch for 2022 season

Seven Houston football players appear on awards watch lists heading into the 2022 season.

Clayton Tune, Davey O’Brien, Maxwell

Tune appears on both the awards watch lists for the Davey O’Brien and the Maxwell. It may not be in the cards for him to win either honor, but being among the best quarterbacks is definitely a plus.

Nathaniel Dell, Biletnikoff, Maxwell

Since Dell is arguably the most talented player on the Cougars roster, he finds himself on awards watch lists for both the Biletnikoff and the Maxwell. He has an extreme outside at the former one.

Patrick Paul, Outland, Lombardi

Patrick Paul is back in the trenches protecting Tune’s blindside at left tackle. The promising offensive lineman is up for both the Outland and the Lombardi. Winning either award is not likely.

Christian Trahan, Mackey

Given his strong connection with Tune in the passing game, Trahan finds himself in the mix for one of the most surprisingly competitive awards in college football, as in the Mackey for best tight end.

Donavan Mutin, Butkus, Wuerffel

Mutin is in contention to win the Butkus, but the one to really keep an eye on is the Wuerrfel. Yes, his play will do the talking, but the leadership Mutin possesses could help him capture the latter.

Gervarrius Owens, Bednarik, Nagurski, Thorpe

Owens is up for three major college football awards in what will probably be his final season. He has been named to preseason awards watch lists for the Bednarik, the Nagurski and the Thorpe.

Laine Wilkins, Ray Guy

With Houston projected to be one of the better mid-major teams in the country, it would not be shocking if punter Laine Wilkins ends up in real contention to bring to U of H the Ray Guy Award.

Houston football biggest game on 2022 schedule

Looking at Houston’s 2022 regular-season schedule, the Cougars have a decent shot at running the gauntlet en route to hosting an AAC Championship game undefeated. They are obviously going to have to win two relatively challenging games in the non-conference from the jump at UTSA in the Alamodome and at Texas Tech in Lubbock. Keep in mind the Red Raiders is a big revenge game.

After rocking the Kansas Jayhawks and cooking Rice, U of H enters what should be a very navigable eight-game conference slate. Houston was picked by the media to win the AAC by one single vote. While Houston got as many first-place votes as UCF (seven) and three less than what Cincinnati got (10), the Cougars edged out the Bearcats in the final preseason media poll tally, 243-242.

And this is where it gets very interesting. Of the 10 possible teams who could fall on Houston’s eight-game conference schedule, look at who they avoid: Cincinnati and UCF. Look at this! Look at how nice this is! Basically, if Houston starts the year out 4-0 with quality wins in the non-conference, they can totally run the gauntlet in AAC play. However, playing SMU in Dallas is rough.

Rhett Lashlee’s regulators are probably going to Mount Up, which is window dressing for hurry-up-and-run. He is coaching in the same league as his mentor down in Orlando, but the Gus Bus leaves the station for Big 12 Country next July. By the time Houston gets to Dallas, the Cougars could be 8-0 with realistic dreams of going undefeated. Keep in mind that SMU could be ranked, too.

It is hard to see Houston slipping up in conference play once it gets rolling, but SMU is no joke.

Houston football best-case scenario

See your future, be your future. To be quite frank, this is exactly what the Big 12 is hoping for. Its dream is for the 2022 AAC Championship game to be between two of the three schools switching leagues next summer between Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. Fortunately for U of H, the Cougars will not have to play either the Bearcats or the Knights until very early December at the soonest.

With that in mind, Houston goes 4-0 in the non-conference, including a pair over future conference opponents in Texas Tech and Kansas. The Cougars rattle off two conference wins in a row vs. Tulane and at Memphis before their bye. With plenty of time to prepare for the triple-option, Houston sinks Navy in Annapolis and then grab the USF Bulls by the horns to get to 8-0.

Facing its toughest challenge up to that point in, Houston rides them ponies like Ginuwine and speeds out of town in a Pontiac Trans Am after securing the bag to 9-0. After taking Temple to church and stealing the East Carolina Pirates booty in Dowdy-Ficklen (argh!), Houston looks to rock Tulsa like a Golden Hurricane to stay perfect. At 12-0, Houston gets either Cincinnati or UCF.

With a win over the Bearcats or Knights, Houston wins the Group of Five and goes New Year’s Six.

Houston football worst-case scenario

In a season of great expectations, great disappointment could be sure to follow. Admittedly, it is hard to see Houston not pushing for double digits in the win department with how much talent is returning to Holgorsen’s team. However, a slow start coupled with a soft schedule could cause a season from hell for a Houston football program trying to make the big jump up to the Power Five.

It all starts with not taking care of business in the non-conference. Let’s be real. If Houston can lose to a Texas Tech team that wasn’t any good a year ago, they could do it again. As weird as it sounds, Houston could be a disastrous 2-2 before AAC play even commences. They could lose two of three between UTSA, Texas Tech and yes, even Kansas, who beat Texas and went to Applebee’s.

Should Houston enter conference play at a mediocre 2-2, it is probably not in the cards for them to run the AAC gauntlet to face presumably the winner of Cincinnati vs. UCF in the title bout; it will be a rematch between them, and no Houstonian involvement. However, the Cougars are still way better than most of their current conference foes. The question is how many games can they lose?

The most likely conference loss would have to be at SMU in Dallas. If we want to add one or two more, let’s put at Memphis and at Navy into consideration. Outside of that, the Cougars are too talented to be a 7-5 (5-3) team, in all honesty. However, 8-4 (6-2) is very much in play. Let’s say they drop two of the three in question in the non-conference and a pair during AAC play this fall.

Houston may fall to UTSA, Texas Tech, SMU and Memphis to join the Big 12 with no momentum.

Houston football 2022 season prediction

There is a reason why Holgorsen left Morgantown for Houston. He loves this city and understands his college football program is a sleeping giant. Harris County has more blue-chip prospects per capita than any metroplex in the country. Texas A&M is relatively nearby, but Houston is … in Houston. This is why Holgorsen is going to Tom Petty Damn the Torpedoes and chase greatness.

The Cougars get through non-conference play 4-0 with wins over UTSA, Texas Tech, Kansas and Rice, Rice, baby. After using the Greenies as fuel, Houston will make the Tigers walk out of Memphis faster than Marc Cohn can put on his blue suede shoes and board a plane. With a bye ahead of some triple-option nonsense, Houston will discipline this service academy to get to 7-0.

No bull will be tolerated vs. South Florida. Even though the Mustangs could be galloping, Eric Dickerson, Craig James and Lance McIlhenny ain’t walking through that door. There is nothing Temple Tough about the 2022 Owls, so that’s a win, Dawg. A streaking Cougars team will turn the East Carolina Pirates into the Pittsburgh Pirates. And not even Dr. Manhattan can save Tulsa here.

At 12-0, Houston will host the winner of Cincinnati vs. UCF in what will be a super awkward AAC Championship at TDECU Stadium. ESPN’s College GameDay might be there with hopefully Wade Phillips being the guest picker, because who doesn’t love Son of Bum? Luv Ya Blue, but these boys ain’t getting Music City Miracle-d. Please tell Tracy, Gerard and the boys, so long and goodnight…

Not since Tom Herman will Houston be this Dynamo on the gridiron, as they win the Group of Five.

Houston football 2022 bowl game prediction

With copious amounts of sweat emanating our of the whispy hair and visor combo of Coach Holgorsen, these Cougars are going Hollywood, baby! Okay, maybe not Hollywood, but they will play Colin Cowherd’s favorite team in the Cotton Bowl. Lincoln Riley will be back in his favorite stadium and home of his future employer, but Petros Papadakis tried to warn USC about Houston.

Up next: No. 26: BYU Cougars

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Houston football 2022 season prediction, preview, awards, 2022 bowl game

By John Buhler | Aug 9, 2022