FedEx St. Jude Championship picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks with our FedEx St. Jude Championship picks for the first FedExCup Playoffs event this week at TPC Southwind.

The regular season is behind us and now we start the FedExCup Playoffs with a new first event as the FedEx St. Jude Championship has moved from the regular season and replaced The NORTHERN TRUST. So it’s off to TPC Southwind and we’re riding high after our PGA Tour expert picks delivered a big winner last week.

Sure, we only hit one bet for the Wyndham Championship, but landing Tom Kim to win at +3300 to win outright is a darn good one to hit. Even better, we took him as our One and Done pick as well, giving us the full winner’s payout there. Now we hope that our FedEx St. Jude Championship picks carry the same mojo this week — and hopefully that more of the bets pull through.

As always, we’ll give out our PGA Tour expert picks for Top 10, One and Done and the winner of the FedEx St. Jude Championship before we dive into our best bets for the week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for FedEx St. Jude Championship: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for FedExCup Championship: Justin Thomas (+190)

Chirp me for this being a square bet if you want — looking at my Green on the Greens co-host Iain MacMillan for this — but Justin Thomas to finish Top 10 just feels like an easy way to cash a ticket this week at decent odds. Yes, I understand that his last two tournaments haven’t shown great results but his last three trips to TPC Southwind have resulted in T26, a win, and T12. His tee-to-green game suits this course perfectly and I love for him to show up big once again and likely contend.

One and Done Pick for FedEx St. Jude Championship: Billy Horschel

Because I want to save at least one or two heavy-hitters for the final two playoff events and I’ve burned so many of them already, I’m taking a gamble here but one that historically could pay off. Billy Horschel hasn’t been anything spectacular lately with a T27 and T21 in his last two starts but he’s played extremely well at TPC Southwind with four Top 25 finishes, including a T4, in his last five starts. I’m banking on that consistency not for a win but, rather, just to cash a nice payday going into the final two events.

Pick to Win FedEx St. Jude Championship: Viktor Hovland (+4000)

If we’re talking about a course where a great tee-to-green game is required, then I’m going to the Viktor Hovland well and backing the Norwegian to get a victory this week. His DNA is that of a ball-striker who can pepper it far but accurately off of the tee and then light up a course with his irons and wedges. He thrives in the 125-200 yards on approach range, which this venue demands a lot of and has been putting well. The around-the-green play is always a concern but, at a place he called one of his favorites on the PGA Tour recently, I think he’s prepared for this coming off the T4 at The Open and gets a statement win to start the playoffs.

FedEx St. Jude Championship picks and best bets

Rory McIlroy to finish Top 10 (+130)

Yes, this is just as square as the Justin Thomas Top 10 bet and I really don’t care. Plus money cashed tickets still get you dollar bills at the pay window and I’m going to take them with Rory McIlroy this week.

With an emphasis on tee-to-green play this week, no one in the field has been better this season in that regard than Rory. Even better, we’ve seen how hot he’s been getting with the putter as well. I will sprinkle on him to win but, with that form coming into a place where two of his last three starts have resulted in T4 and T12, I love for him to be in contention yet again.

Callum Tarren to finish Top 20 (+600)

This is my big swing for a Top 20 bet but it feels like a great one to make at these odds. Since popping into contention early at the US Open, Callum Tarren has been going on a tear. He’s made the cut in five of his last six tournaments with none of those five finishes being worse than T27 and with three Top 20s mixed in there as well. Over the last 24 rounds, he’s gaining about a half-stroke per round on approach and 0.72 strokes with the putter. That’s the form to play well at Southwind, especially after he showed good control with the driver for a T27 last week at Wyndham.

Davis Riley to finish Top 20 (+275)

After he finished Top 20 at Wyndham last week, I’m back to backing Riley. He showed the form we want to see at TPC Southwind as he gained 0.65 strokes on approach per round and then drove the ball accurately. His short game leaves a lot to be desired still but I still love for him to recapture that form from a month or so ago and cash an easy Top 20 ticket.

Longshot pick to win FedEx St. Jude Championship: Scott Stallings (+10000)

While Scott Stallings hasn’t played at TPC Southwind since 2018 and didn’t finish better than T30 in the last two times he played this course, I love where he’s at coming into this tournament and think he presents real value at 100/1. He’s coming in with three straight T13 or better finishes and has been gaining more than 1.00 strokes per round on approach to get there. He might not win, but he’ll have terrific odds for a Top 20 and I love where his form is at.

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