Penn State football 2022 season prediction, preview, awards, 2022 bowl game

After a disappointing Penn State football season a year ago, James Franklin should be eyeing a huge bounce-back for the Nittany Lions.

James Franklin has seen his star grow dimmer among Penn State football fans over the past two years as the results have not been what’s expected in Happy Valley. Yet, there were difficult circumstances to navigate that bring about optimism for what’s to come for the Nittany Lions and that Franklin can get things back on track.

Will we see that play out in the 2022 season? There are reasons to believe that Penn State football will make some noise in the Big Ten once again.

Coming in at No. 23 in our FanSided Preseason Top 50 college football rankings, the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Penn State football 2021 season in review

It was actually a moderate improvement last season from the COVID-altered 2020 campaign but Penn State still struggled to find the success that led to Franklin being lauded for the job he’s done with the Nittany Lions.

A 5-0 start with wins over then-ranked Wisconsin and Auburn seemed to indicate that things were right back on track in the 2021 season but then the wheels started to come off, whether that was due to injuries or general ineffectiveness. The Nittany Lions lost five of their final seven regular season games, including an ugly loss to Illinois and narrow defeats against the best teams on the schedule, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State.

That was still good enough to get the team into the Outback Bowl but they ended the year on a sour note with a 24-10 loss to Arkansas. All told, Penn State ended with a 7-6 record and just a 4-5 mark in the Big Ten. That’s the bare minimum bar that Franklin and his team are trying to clear in the 2022 season.

Previewing Penn State Nittany Lions offense for 2022 season

Returning starters (7): QB Sean Clifford, RB Keyvone Lee, WR Parker Washington, WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith, TE Brenton Strange, RT Caeden Wallace, OC Juice Scruggs
Notable newcomers: WR Mitchell Tinsley (Western Kentucky), WR Kaden Saunders (Freshman), WR Omari Evans (Freshman), RB Nicholas Singleton (Freshman), OG Hunter Nourzad (Cornell)
Impact player: Keyvone Lee

There is a combination of experience and question marks with this offense but, at the same time, there is hope.

Sean Clifford returns for what feels like his ninth year as the starting quarterback and a lot will be put on his shoulders, especially with the departure of his leading receiver, Jahan Dotson, and versatile running back Noah Cain. The good news is that Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith were productive and, along with newcomer Mitchell Tinsley who’s impressed this offseason, could help the passing game not miss a beat.

While there is a revolving door of talented running backs on the roster, Keyvone Lee is key. He should get a full workload and the inconsistency of the Penn State rushing attack has been most notable over the mediocre past two seasons. Lee being “the guy” could help alleviate that.

However, the crux of this offense is going to be an offensive line that returns just two starters and has some real questions. There isn’t much experience among the players stepping into the other starting roles and the line wasn’t all that impressive last year. Clifford and Lee’s jobs will be made substantially harder if things don’t come together there in fall camp.

Previewing Penn State Nittany Lions defense for 2022 season

Returning starters (5): DE Nick Tarburton, DT PJ Mustipher, LB Curtis Jacobs, CB Joey Porter Jr., S Ji’Ayir Brown
Notable newcomers: DE Chop Robinson (Maryland), DE Dani Dennis-Sutton (Freshman)
Impact player: Joey Porter Jr.

There is far less experience on the Penn State defense for the 2022 season than the offense and, yet, I’m higher on this side of the ball than otherwise.

Joey Porter Jr. is a bonafide star at cornerback as he comes into his junior campaign and he’s joined by the team’s leading returning tackler, safety Ji’Aiyir Brown, in the secondary. Even with some other departures, the leadership those two should provide gives them a strong baseline that can be relied on as this side of the ball undergoes a coaching change now that Brent Pry is gone to Blacksburg.

Curtis Jacobs is extremely capable at linebacker but the bigger question is around him. Penn State is losing Ellis Brooks and Brandon Smith, the team’s leading tacklers a year ago at linebacker, and will need to fill those voids.

But the biggest question, bar none, is the defensive front. This was an oft-injured and troublesome group overall in 2021 and they now lose their leading sacker, Arnold Ebiketie, to the NFL. There is hope for sophomore transfer Chop Robinson, who started every game for Maryland a season ago, and 5-star newcomer Dani Dennis-Sutton to step into the rotation and make a splash. But without that, much is going to be put on the plate of Nick Tarburton.

Penn State football players awards watch for 2022 season

Parker Washington and Mitchell Tinsley, Biletnikoff

Penn State veteran Parker Washington is joined by Western Kentucky transfer Mitchell Tinsley on the watchlist for college football’s best receiver but they both should have plenty of chances to make their cases as the best wideout in the nation.

Joey Porter Jr. and Ji’Ayir Brown, Jim Thorpe

The two veterans in the secondary return to a ton of hype and deservedly so. While they are different styles of players with Porter Jr. being more of a traditional cover man and Brown being more of a downhill tackler, this is a good duo that should get plenty of deserved love this season.

Sean Clifford, Maxwell/Davey O’Brien

In my opinion, it’s going to require a massive jump from Clifford if he’s going to truly contend for any of these awards. With that said, his experience combined with getting healthy again does inspire some hope that he can be better and potentially make some noise in these races.

Penn State football biggest game on 2022 schedule

Strong cases could be made that the Thursday night season-opener on Sept. 1 against Purdue is crucial to set a tone for the Nittany Lions, so that’s the team’s most important game, but I’m looking a bit further down the line.

The Purdue game will be tricky, but my measure has Penn State sitting at 4-1 at worst going into their bye week and then a trip to play Michigan at the Big House. I don’t think that’s a win in any capacity, so that’s a 4-2 start at worst before welcoming Minnesota to Happy Valley for homecoming.

P.J. Fleck’s team figures to be quite pesky this season and this is the exact point where the wheels fell off for Penn State in 2021. After their loss to Iowa at the same point as they play Michigan, that’s when the losses started piling up. As such, the Oct. 22 matchup with the Golden Gophers is crucial against a good team — sandwiched between Michigan and Ohio State, no less — that is going to truly set the tone for how this season ends up.

Penn State football best-case scenario

After going 11-11 over the past two seasons combined, is it in the cards that the Nittany Lions could actually win double-digit games this season alone? Actually, it seems quite possible.

For as much as Penn State at their best can test the powers in the Big Ten, I don’t think they’re in the same stratosphere as Ohio State and playing Michigan in Ann Arbor all but eliminates the chance of an upset in that game. But after those two losses, Penn State has the experience and upside for the 2022 season to not lose again in the conference or otherwise.

Pulling that off would be the best-case scenario and leave Penn State at 10-2 on the year.

Penn State football worst-case scenario

But let’s say the offensive line doesn’t come around, that the defense struggles to replace the production at linebacker and get a consistent push up front, and that Sean Clifford stagnates. Then, we have some problems.

Should things play out like that and the sour feelings from 2021 linger, there’s a chance they lose to Purdue to start the season. Two weeks later, while I’m not overly believing in Auburn, that’s a losable game on the road. Throw in the customary losses to Ohio State and Michigan, add in the season finale being a loss to Michigan State, that puts five losses on the record. And if things are going this badly, a resurgent Maryland team could cause some problems.

Worst-case scenario looks like a 6-6 season for the Nittany Lions. It could be worse, to be sure, but that’s not the step forward that Franklin is looking to take after the last two campaigns.

Penn State football 2022 season prediction

When you get down to brass tacks, I don’t see the worst-case scenario being that likely. The fact that the Nittany Lions can establish a rushing attack more than they have in other recent seasons while also expecting an uptick in defensive performance and playmaking leads me to lean far more optimistically than the worst-case scenario.

The losses to Ohio State and Michigan remain, and my gut tells me that this team loses to one of Purdue, Michigan State or even Maryland in an upset. Even still, after winning just 11 games over the past two years combined, being able to secure a 9-3 regular season with the chance to move on and get 10 wins with their bowl game is the rebound that Franklin is looking for.

Penn State football 2022 bowl game prediction

The College Football News post-spring bowl projections have the Nittany Lions and Franklin wishing they had a turkey sandwich as they’ll be surrounded by Duke’s Mayo in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. Penn State is projected to face the Miami Hurricanes.

Up Next: No. 22: Kentucky

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