Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the penultimate tournament of the FedExCup Playoffs with the BMW Championship.
Hold back your tears, only two events remain until the 2021-22 PGA Tour season concludes as we head to the BMW Championship this week. As this is a tournament that rotates the venue every year, we’re heading to Delaware for the first time in Tour history, Wilmington Country Club to be exact.
In truth, this is a handicapper’s nightmare. This is a course we’ve never seen before, meaning the data is limited, but also with a limited field of the 70 players remaining in the playoffs. That makes this tough, so be careful with how much you’re coming in with your units. Exercise restraint and caution because this is a tough one.
Making it worse is that we need a bounce-back after the PGA Tour expert picks and best bets came up empty last week in Memphis. Time to rebound, though, and we’re going to try and do just that at the BMW Championship.
Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
PGA Tour expert picks for BMW Championship: Winner, Top 5, One and Done
Top 5 pick for BMW Championship: Jon Rahm (+260)
Even though the BMW Championship rotates, Rahm has always turned it up the week before going to East Lake. In the last five years, he has a win, three Top 5 finishes and four Top 10 finishes at this event.
What’s more promising is that he was an elite ball striker last week and I’m focusing heavily on tee-to-green play at a course that’s largely an unknown. If he can be an average putter, he’ll be in contention. And if he putts well, he could very well come up with another win at the BMW.
One and Done Pick for BMW Championship: Joaquin Niemann
We’re down to the nitty-gritty with players who I haven’t burned for One and Done (a mistake on my part not saving more guys for the playoffs), but I love Niemann this week. I’ll be betting him to finish in the Top 10 and possibly as an outright winner because he’s in sneaky good form after a T13 last week. He gained over 7.0 strokes with ball striking at the St. Jude and was up and down with the putter. I love that type of form coming into this tournament and think he shows out well.
Pick to Win BMW Championship: Xander Schauffele (+2000)
If we’re talking ball striking and players who have been form, then I love Schauffele this week. He’s not being talked about like he should be, perhaps because he had a little bit of a down week in Memphis. But that was also a tournament in which he didn’t need to show up for the playoffs in terms of form and was most likely looking for reps. Over the past couple of months, he’s been consistently popping up on the leaderboard and I think he makes a big move heading into a place he loves in East Lake.
BMW Championship picks and best bets
Joohyung Kim to finish Top 10 (+320)
Tom Kim cashed as an outright winner for me two weeks ago and I’m going back to the well here because he’s not letting up. In the loaded field last week, he came up with a T13. He’s seeing all of these courses for the first time, but so is everyone this week. That’s an advantage for a guy who has been white hot down the stretch. His approach play has been elite and his putter can get extremely hot. At an unknown venue, that’s the recipe I’m looking for.
Will Zalatoris to finish Top 10 (+170)
We’re running it back with the guy who won last week for the first time on the PGA Tour. If we’re targeting ball strikers in good form, then you have to think that Zalatoris is in the mix. He was dialed-in to the nth degree with his irons and wedges last week and we know how good he can be with the driver as he pounds it deep down the fairway (or, you know, the rough — but that’s okay). I don’t see him letting off the gas and think he comes up with another strong finish.
Longshot pick to win BMW Championship: Cam Davis (+6000)
Davis has quietly been playing elite golf, even in relation to this strong field. Over the last 20 rounds, he’s sixth best in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green while also being a gainer with the putter. That’s his formula to succeed. With the way he’s playing, he should have worse odds than 60/1 and I’m going to be invested in him in multiple ways because of that.
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