Twins aren’t getting what they paid for in Carlos Correa

Twins aren’t getting what they paid for in Carlos Correa.

The Minnesota Twins made a shocking move during last year’s MLB free agency when they signed Carlos Correa to a three-year deal worth $105.3 million. It included two opt-outs, one after 2022 and one after the 2023 season.  Prior to the season, it was widely believed that Carlos was likely to opt out after the 2022 season since he could make more in a standard free agency year. While he might not make more than $35.1 million per year, he could top the 105.3 valuation.  His $35.1 salary this year is the 5th-highest in the MLB, bringing many expectations to how Carlos Correa plays. Has he met those expectations?

The two-time All-Star and Rookie of the Year award winner had an excellent career in Houston including winning a murky World Series. He’s played like a great shortstop when healthy which wasn’t always the case from 2017-19. He played in only 294 of 486 possible games during that span due to injuries. That gave some teams some pause in addition to the scandals Correa endured with the Astros and the MLB lockout. Teams were hesitant to give an exorbitant contract to Carlos despite him only entering his age-27 season. The Twins took a risk but did it pay off?

The Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa expecting a massive season from the 27-year-old, but he’s failed to meet the expectations of a huge contract

The Twins don’t usually spend large money in free agency. That’s why when they signed Carlos, it was widely believed to be a one-year deal essentially that would help the Twins get back to the postseason. The Twins are on the precipice of the playoffs. After being in first place for most of the year, they are now in second, behind the Cleveland Guardians by 1.5 games. They’re 2.5 games back of the final wild-card spot, though they have to beat out the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles, and Mariners.

The dog days of summer when the schedules get tough is when Carlos was supposed to lead the Twins back to the playoffs. He would be the centerpiece of the offense. Instead, he’s fallen flat. He’s been burdened by multiple injuries this year and spent time on the injured list.

When healthy, he’s played in 95 games with 411 at-bats. He has hit .266/.348/.424/.772 with a 124 OPS+ and 15 doubles, 14 home runs, and 39 RBI. He has walked 45 times to a below-average 85 strikeouts. The OPS+ is nice, but it’s not close to the expectations.

He has not hit for power as anyone expected nor has he been good in clutch situations. His batting line is far below his career average. He’s still been a good player at 3.4 WAR, but clearly not a $35 million player. This is especially true since the All-Star break.

In 25 games since July 23rd, he has hit .228/.333/.348/.681 with only 2 doubles, 3 home runs, and 14 RBI. His eye at the plate has gotten worse with 20 strikeouts to only 2 walks. It’s extremely troublesome for the Twins who need his bat to get hot if they hope to make the playoffs or actually win a series.

It’s starting to look like Carlos Correa might not opt-out of his contract after the 22′ season. If these numbers continue, there’s a big chance that teams won’t be willing to give him the type of contract he wants. He would get another shot at rebounding for a huge contract again. Hitting free agency at the age of 28/29 is still plenty young to get a big deal.

Carlos Correa has to get going at the plate if he and the Twins want to salvage this big-money contract and if Correa wants to opt out for a larger deal this offseason.

The ultimate prediction is that Carlos Correa is back with the Minnesota Twins in 2023.