Houston Texans season prediction: Best and worst case scenario for 2022

Welcome to FanSided’s 2022 NFL preview! It’s time to look into our crystal football and take a glimpse at the Houston Texans season prediction.

It’s an NFL franchise in the midst of some dark times. And to think, the Houston Texans won six AFC South titles in a nine-year span from 2011-19. Now the club has a fourth different head coach since 2020. Bill O’Brien didn’t make it through his seventh year and gave way to interim Romeo Crennel. David Culley was hired in 2021 and now Lovie Smith has the job in Houston.

Last offseason, the Texans saw a lot of departures in addition to arrivals and that lacked continuity — something that would eventually bleed down the field. The results were a 4-13 and a second straight third-place finish in the AFC South. Smith was a part of that team in 2021 as the defensive coordinator. But this was another year of numerous changes. But the Texans did add some pieces in the draft.

Houston Texans 2021 season in review

2021 record: 4-13
Place in AFC South: 3rd
Failed to qualify for playoffs

There were forecasts of doom surrounding a team that had already plummeted to 4-12 after winning the AFC South with a 10-6 record the previous season. Defensive end J.J. Watt asked for his release and got it – signing with the Arizona Cardinals. The new head coach was David Culley and he inherited a club that during the offseason saw numerous players come and go.

Three-time Pro Bowl quarterback Deshaun Watson (who led the NFL in passing yards in 2020) decided he no longer wanted to play football with the organization. The opening-week starter behind center was well-traveled Tyrod Taylor, who started the first two games and would reappear at midseason. Culley’s club kicked off the season with a win over visiting Jacksonville.

The team would then embark on an eight-game losing streak and scored a combined 91 points in those contests. But to their credit, there was no quit in this re-shaped club. The Texans pulled off a stunning upset of the Titans at Nashville in November. There would be a victory over the talented Chargers in Week 16. Still, Houston won only four games for the second straight year.

Houston Texans NFL Draft class

Rd 1: Derek Stingley, CB/LSU
Rd 1: Kenyon Green, G/Texas A&M
Rd 2: Jalen Pitre, S/Baylor
Rd 2: John Metchie, WR/Alabama
Rd 3: Christian Harris, LB/Alabama
Rd 4: Dameon Pierce, RB/Florida
Rd 5: Thomas Booker, DT/Stanford
Rd 5: Teagan Quitoriano, TE/Oregon State
Rd 6: Austin Deculus, OT/LSU

It’s an organization that has dealt away its share of first-round picks in recent years. Prior to this year’s draft, the Texans had only picked one player in the first round since 2018. That would be Alabama State tackle Tytus Howard three years ago. But things were much different this past April as the organization owned the third and 15th overall selections in this year’s NFL draft.

The franchise opted for talented LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. with that initial pick and then addressed the offensive line by grabbing Texas A&M guard Kenyon Green. And this pair of standouts, along with second-round safety Jalen Pitre and fourth-round running back Dameon Pierce, are all expected to be in the starting lineup when the Texans host the Colts in Week 1.

Previewing Texans offense for 2022 season

Key offseason additions
- RB Dameon Pierce
- G A.J. Cann
- G Kenyon Green
Biggest X-Factor: QB Davis Mills
Squeakiest Wheel: RB Rex Burkhead

New head coach Lovie Smith and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton are banking on the fact that Davis Mills showed enough during his rookie season a season to take a step forward in his second year. The 2021 third-round pick from Stanford University played in 13 games and made 11 starts. He hit on 66.8 percent of his passes, throwing 16 TD passes to 10 interceptions.

Mills took his lumps but this was a team devoid of weapons. When the smoke cleared, the Texans finished dead last in the league in total offense and rushing yards while only two teams scored fewer points. At this moment, it’s hard to tell if the talent on this side of the ball has improved dramatically. Rookie running back Dameon Pierce should make an immediate impact.

Veteran Brandin Cooks is the team’s best offensive player. But can the line be better than a year ago? There are new guards in sturdy A.J. Cann – via the Jaguars – and rookie Kenyon Green. This could be a very improved area for the team. A year ago, the Texans finished dead last in the league in rushing yards per game and also allowed a disappointing 44 sacks.

Previewing Texans defense for 2022 season

Key offseason additions
- DE Mario Addison
- CB Derek Stingley Jr.
- S Jalen Pitre
Biggest X-Factor: DE Jerry Hughes
Squeakiest Wheel: CB Steven Nelson

Longtime coach Lovie Smith was the team’s defensive coordinator in 2021 and inherited a unit that allowed the third-most total yards in the league and the most rushing yards in the NFL the previous year. General manager Nick Caserio brought in a slew of new faces hoping to reverse the misfortunes of a unit that had been steadily sliding dating back to 2019. But it didn’t happen.

Now Smith looks to bolster a team that allowed the second-most total yards and rushing yards per game a season ago. The Texans surrendered a whopping 52 offensive touchdowns – 25 on the ground and 27 through the air. And this was despite the fact that Houston came up with a respectable 25 takeaways. The pass rush (32 sacks) needed to be addressed this offseason.

Hence the additions of defensive ends Mario Addison (67 career sacks) and Jerry Hughes (58 career sacks), both members of the Buffalo Bills this past season. The secondary should benefit from more pressure via these veterans. And that defensive backfield has several new looks in rookies Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre as well as free-agent cornerback Steven Nelson.

Houston Texans coaching staff overview

Head Coach: Lovie Smith
Off. Coordinator: Pep Hamilton
Def. Coordinator: Lovie Smith
2023 Head Coach Candidate: Pep Hamilton

It’s safe to say that Lovie Smith owns quite the impressive football resume. The heralded defensive coach led the Chicago Bears to an appearance in Super Bowl LI as their head coach. There was a two-year stint as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and a year ago he was the Texans’ defensive coordinator. He will be doing double-duty for this franchise this season.

Houston Texans Awards Watch

Running back Dameon Pierce, a fourth-round pick from the University of Florida in April, could be a pleasant surprise. And a big year from the former Gator could earn him some NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year votes.

Brandin Cooks, MVP

The former first-round draft choice of the New Orleans Saints is somewhat underappreciated. And that could be due to the fact that he has been dealt numerous times and was the subject of trade talks this offseason. He comes off a season in which he caught 90 passes for 1,037 yards and six touchdowns. And second-year quarterback Davis Mills will be relying on him heavily.

Jalen Pitre, Defensive Rookie of the Year

The Texans used the third overall pick in April’s draft to grab talented cornerback Derek Stanley Jr. from LSU. But this safety from Baylor University showed his big-play potential during his career with the Bears. He comes off an impressive 2021 campaign in which he finished with 75 tackles, 3.5 sacks, a pair of interceptions, three fumble recoveries and seven passes defensed.

Dameon Pierce, Offensive Rookie of the Year

One of the Texans’ better offseason additions was former Colts’ running back Marlon Mack. The team was hoping he could bolster the NFL’s worst ground attack in 2021. But he was beat out by rookie Dameon Pierce and Mack wound up being released. He finished with a modest 2,228 yards from scrimmage and 28 touchdowns at Florida. But 16 of those scores came in 2021.

Biggest game on Houston Texans schedule

The Texans begin the season hosting the Colts and finish the year traveling to Indianapolis. The team also plays four of its first six games on the road, including a visit to Chicago in Week 3. That makes for an intriguing afternoon for former Bears’ head coach Lovie Smith. But the team hosts the Philadelphia Eagles on a Thursday night in Week 9. Is this club ready for prime time?

Houston Texans season prediction: Best case scenario

It’s interesting to note that while the Texans won only four games in 2021, they broke even within the division (3-3). That included a sweep of the Jaguars. Lovie Smith’s club faces each of its AFC South rivals within the first eight weeks – the Colts (Week 1) and Titans (Week 8) at home. If the club can pull off an upset (or two) it may not be a disastrous year. Wishful thinking?

Houston Texans season prediction: Worst-case scenario

This is a team that owns a combined 8-25 record the past two seasons. And five of those victories have come within the division. This means that the Texans are just 3-18 against the rest of the league over that span. And if that miserable trend continues, the club is looking at a third straight losing campaign. All told, 2022 looks like it could be a year of learning in Houston.

Houston Texans season prediction in 2022

5-12 record
4th place in AFC South
Playoff Prediction: Will not qualify

The Texans will be an improved football team this season, but it will not be reflected in their win-loss record. The club has its shortcomings in the defensive trenches, which has been an issue for this club in recent years. Defensively, Lovie Smith will try to do his magic as head coach and defensive coordinator. Meanwhile, rookie running back Dameon Pierce bears watching and it will be interesting to see if quarterback Davis Mills takes a step forward in his second NFL season. Still, there’s a long way to go here despite some promising young players on the roster.

Read more from FanSided’s 2022 NFL Preview here. For more Tennessee Titans coverage, check out Toro Times.