College football 2022 Week 2 upset pick, lock, bad bet, and strangest thing

The 2022 college football season is now officially underway with both Week 0 and Week 1 behind us, so what fun treats will Week 2 bring?

Week 1 of the college football season traditionally brings a lot of…well…ugly games. Blowouts. Powerhouses massacring cupcakes. But with the addition of games such as the Chick-fil-A Kickoff games and with many FBS schools moving away from the opening week creampuff, the number of quality games has greatly increased.

We saw some great ones last week, as well as some rather unexpected blowouts (looking at you Oregon, seriously?). Now the nerves are settled and that first big hit has been made. College football is officially back.

Betting is also back, and last week I gave you one upset, one lock, and one bad bed to steer clear of. So, how did I do?

Upset: I picked Rutgers +7 against Boston College. The Scarlet Knights both beat the spread and won the game.

Lock: I took Arkansas -6.5 against Cincinnati. The Razorbacks won by 7

2-0 on the picks, and steering you away from UNC and App State was probably a good idea. Even though the Tar Heels covered the 1-point spread, it was one of the craziest, most back-and-forth games of the weekend.

Here are my picks for Week 2 with odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Week 2 Upset Pick: Tennessee vs Pitt

Vegas is showing a lot of respect to the No. 24 Volunteers in this game, despite Pitt being the higher-ranked team at No. 17

The Panthers were involved in one of the better games last weekend, prevailing in the Backyard Brawl over West Virginia, 38-31. Meanwhile, the Vols opened the season with a 49-point win over Ball State. While that big point differential looks great, the level of competition each team faced was vastly different.

So why take Pitt in the upset here? The Panthers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games and are 6-1 straight-up in the last 7 games, including 5-1 in the last 6 home games. Bottom line, Pat Narduzzi knows how to coach and how to get the most out of his team, regardless of the talent level – something we haven’t seen in Knoxville since the days of Phil Fulmer (the coach, not the AD version).

Pick: Pitt out-muscles the Vols, and comes away with a very narrow win for the second straight week. 

With some early-season cupcake games still going on, I had to dig to find a decent matchup that could be considered a lock in Week 2. Here’s one game I’d safely put in that category.

College Football Week 2 Lock: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Arizona Wildcats

I’m giving you a two-for-one in this pick, a rarity for my conservative thinking.

Mike Leach’s air raid offense is finally (maybe?) clicking and the Bulldogs look to be the well-oiled offensive machine that we’re used to seeing from a Leach-coached team. Mississippi State poured 49 points on a pretty good Memphis team last week, and Arizona is probably not even up to that level of play.

The Bulldogs are  6-2 ATS in their last eight games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. The only thing that might make me weary of this pick is the 11 pm ET kickoff, but even a little jetlag probably won’t make a difference here.

I’ll also give you the over at 59.5 points. The Dawgs may score that many on their own if Arizona can’t find some consistency on defense.

Pick: Mississippi State pulls away early and wins big.

While there are a lot of potential bad bets to avoid this weekend, one stands out among the crowd. Heading down to SEC country for a good old-fashioned grudge match.

College Football Week 2 Bad Bet: Kentucky Wildcats vs Florida Gators

For a stretch of 31 straight seasons starting in 1987, the Gators absolutely owned the series with the Wildcats. But under Mark Stoops, Kentucky is 2-7 against Florida, and if not for a couple of bad bounces and bad calls by the officials, that record could easily be 4-5.

Bottom line, Kentucky is not the pushover they once were on the football field, and what used to be the yearly sacrifice to Florida has now turned into a game analysts and commentators point to, and one the fans circle on their calendars.

The Gators are only favored by 4.5 points in a primetime game at the Swamp. That’s a pretty good indication of how the pendulum has swung in a different direction for both programs.

Florida is coming off a big win where they expended a lot of emotion and energy, in a game they very well could have lost. The Wildcats are going to be another tough out. This one will likely be closer than 5 points, but you wouldn’t catch me betting this line with Paul Finebaum’s money, less yet my own.

Pick: Gators prevail, but it may take another last-minute miracle. 

The Strangest Thing We Saw in College Football Week 1

There were a lot of odd things that went on in the first full week of the season, and that’s not unusual. What was unusual was Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins’s complete lack of clock management skills as well as public lack of faith in his team.

The Yellow Jackets were squarely in the game against Clemson during the first half on Monday night, despite a number of miscues and unforced errors. But as time was winding down in the 2nd quarter, Clemson had a drive stall out. Collins could have (should have) called a timeout to take at least one more shot at scoring, but instead, let Clemson run out the clock to end the half.

The decision befuddled everyone, including the announcers at the game. When questioned as to why he chose not to use his available timeouts, Collins basically explained that he was afraid Clemson would go for it on 4th down to keep the drive alive or run a trick play and end up scoring.

Way to instill confidence in your guys, coach. That seat getting hotter?

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