4 NBA players who need a comeback season in 2022-23

NBA players in need of a 2022-23 comeback: Julius Randle

• 2021-22 WAR: -0.7
• FiveThirtyEight WAR projection: 1.7

The Julius Randle experience is a roller coaster. It’s fitting for Knicks fans to have to endure it, honestly. After far exceeding expectations in 2021 and making the Knicks look like geniuses, he fell right back to earth in 2022.

Was the 2021 All-Star season a fluke? Or can Randle recapture the magic that got him to that level in 2023? After a remarkable 3.8 BPM season in 2021, he dropped to 0.2 in 2022, a decline of 87%. Randle dropped 4 points off his per-game average and fell starkly in shooting efficiency: 41.1% in 2021, 30.8% in 2022. Randle exerted a lot more of his energy at the rim, attempting 25.4% of his shots within three feet of the rim (compared to 16.2% the prior season) but failed to convert at a respectable level. Looking at post-up opportunities, his points-per-post-up dropped from 0.93 in 2021 to 0.72 in 2022.

Don’t fear, Knicks fans, Randle is putting in the work, at least according to his Instagram. We know better than to take very much from a self-posted workout video, but Randle’s mindset being oriented toward improvement is definitely a good thing.

While New York fans desparately hope that the truth about Randle is closer to his 2022 season with the team rather than his 2020 campaign, the reality is probably somewhere in the middle, which is exactly what last year is.

We’re certainly rooting for Randle, and the narrative is positioned in such a way that he has an underdog story in front of him for bouncing back this year, but we’re far enough into his career that we know what he is.

The optimistic perspective is available, though, even looking at things objectively: FiveThirtyEight predicts Randle will have a bounceback year going from a -0.7 WAR to a 1.7 this year. Still, that’s a far cry from his 8.0 in his All-Star season.