College football 2022 Week 5 upset pick, lock, bad bet, and strangest thing

College football can be a cruel mistress, and Week 4 in 2022 proved that for some big-time teams and yet another dismissed coach. 

The 2022 college football season is beginning to take some real shape, and we’re finding out sooner rather than later who some of these teams truly are. It’s gut check time in Week 5 for a few teams who had big expectations (looking at you, Miami).

Week 4 was not a good week for Top 25 teams playing an underdog opponent with “State” in the college name.

Oklahoma saw their schooner toppled by Kansas State once again, USC struggled to a narrow win over upstart Oregon State, Oregon was nearly upset by Washington State, and in what was probably the shocker of the week, Miami was soundly defeated by Middle Tennessee State.

Week 4 also saw the third coach firing of the year before October 1 when Georgia Tech showed Geoff Collins, as well as AD Todd Stansbury. Collins joins both former Nebraska coach Scott Frost and former Arizona State coach Herm Edwards on the list of fired coaches in 2022.

Week 5 may be a little less exciting, as some teams are beginning open weeks, but still plenty of action to look at from a betting perspective. Last week, my picks were (mostly) solid.

Upset: I counted on the mystique of Lane Stadium on a Thursday night to keep West Virginia from covering against Virginia Tech. Bad idea. This Hokies team has a lot to work on, so put an L on the board for me there.

Lock: I took Kansas to cover 7.5 against Duke, and the Jayhawks — UNDEFEATED Jayhawks — won handily. I also took the over at 66.5. The two basketball powers totaled 62. Close, but no cigar.

So 1-2 last week, bringing me to 6-4 on the season for my picks. Still better than Joey Galloway’s virtual locks this year.

Here are my picks for Week 5 with odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Week 5 Upset Pick: San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos

All is not well in the land potatoes, as Boise State is experiencing some internal strife right now. On Saturday, Broncos offensive coordinator Tim Plough was fired which was quickly followed by 4-year starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier announcing he was entering the transfer portal.

That’s a lot of change for the Broncos, and it’s just as they approach the meat of their conference schedule. While things may smooth over as the remainder of the season progresses, I detect struggle in their Week 5 future.

These two teams would be evenly matched anyway, and despite the home-field advantage on the Smurf Turf of Albertson’s Stadium, it’s hard to see Boise State coming away with a win. The Broncos are already 0-3-1 ATS this year and you should expect that trend to continue.

Pick: Aztecs should certainly beat the 6.5 and will probably win outright if you’re looking at a Moneyline bet 

Staying out west and moving on to a game that some may not see as a lock, but in my view, I don’t think they can miss.

College Football Week 5 Lock: Washington Huskies vs UCLA Bruins

The consensus seems to be we have two undefeated Pac-12 teams locking up and airing it out for what will be a high-scoring but close game.

Not so fast, my friends.

While neither the Huskies nor Bruins have suffered a loss this year, the upper hand will definitely have to go to Washington and by more than just three points.

UCLA has folks rightfully excited this year, but they’ve also played four very pedestrian opponents, while Washington has at least been tested and pushed by some decent teams and looked stronger than many thought they’d be this season.

The Huskies at 4-0 ATS in 2022, and the Bruins are 2-2, including 1-2 as the home team. Go with the trend and take the Huskies to more than cover that three-point margin. As for the 65-point over/under, consider that a lock at the over as well.

Pick: Huskies by two scores, 70 points between the two offensive-leaning squads. 

So what’s the game to stay away from this week? Let’s continue the western trend.

College Football Week 5 Bad Bet: West Virginia Mountaineers vs Texas Longhorns

Do we really know if either WVU or Texas is a decent or terrible team this year? Not even close. There’s no clue as to which squad of ‘Neers or Longhorns will show up.

The Texas team that took Alabama down to the wire, or the one who choked away what looked like a surefire win against Texas Tech? The WVU team who let Kansas dump 55 points on them, or the one who just put Enter Sandman to sleep against Virginia Tech?

Yes, it’s a home game for Texas, but 9.5 points? This will probably be a much closer game than that…but then again…it might be a blowout in either direction. Neither team has good indicators or trends this year, so it’s probably a good idea to avoid looking at this game on your slips.

Pick: Texas will ride the home field advantage to a struggle win of less than 6 

The Strangest Thing We Saw in College Football Week 4

There have certainly been some oddities happening in the 2022 college football season, and Week 5 gave us one of the strangest things yet, and of course, it happened on Pac-12 After Dark.

During the Washington-Stanford game at Husky Stadium, a “rogue drone” was spotted flying over the field by Stanford coach David Shaw. The game had to be delayed for the protection of both players and fans until the done had cleared the visible bowl of the stadium.

The strangest part? It turned out to belong to the University of Washington.

Fox Sports reporter Jennifer Hale said during the Seahawks-Falcons game (which was also interrupted by a drone) that the Washington Athletic Department was responsible for Saturday’s interruption, saying their drone “lost connection and went rogue.”

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