1 big stat indicating Aaron Judge might break HR record on Friday

One big stat indicates Aaron Judge could hit his 62nd home run of the season on Friday against the Orioles.

We had to wait eight games for Aaron Judge to go from 60 home runs to 61, tying Roger Maris for the single-season home run record in the American League. We may not have to wait quite so long for him to record his 62nd home run of the year, which would also officially break Maris’s record.

Judge and the Yankees return to play after a Thursday off-day against the Baltimore Orioles at home in New York.

Not only is Judge reeling off finally getting No. 61, but he’s also celebrating the fact that the Yankees clinched the AL East last week, one of the toughest and most talented top-to-bottom divisions in baseball.

Stats indicate Orioles series is ripe for Aaron Judge home runs

Beyond the qualitative considerations for Judge — no more pressure with No. 61 and a division title behind him — to get another home run on Friday, there’s also the trends to consider this season.

The big stat: Aaron Judge has hit home runs against the Orioles more than any other team this season. With nine home runs so far this season against the Orioles, he knows this team well and has performed at a high level against them.

Of course, the Yankees play the Orioles more than other teams since they’re in the same division. Factoring that in, though, there’s still reason to believe the Orioles are the best team for him to get a homer against.

Judge has nine home runs in 15 games against the Orioles. That works out to a home run in 60 percent of the games. The only American League team he has a higher percentage against is the Royals: 7 home runs in 6 games.

Jordan Lyles is the starter for the Orioles tonight. Judge is 5-for-14 (.357) against Lyles with 2 home runs in those 14 at-bats.

That’s a lot of statistical signs pointing to a Judge homer tonight.