The Josh Hader trade was a miscalculation by the Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers should regret trading Josh Hader, especially after the Padres Game 3 win.

At the time, I did not agree with the Milwaukee Brewers’ decision to trade Josh Hader. And on Friday night, as Hader brought the San Diego Padres within a game of the National League Championship Series, that decision looks even worse.

The Brewers traded Hader for a multitude of reasons. He was earning $11 million in 2022 and was due for another raise in arbitration in 2023 before becoming a free agent in 2024. He was primarily a one-inning pitcher, even in the postseason. For a small-market team like Milwaukee, it fueled trade speculation for three years, and had teams – the Padres, Mets, Braves, Yankees and others – checking in on his availability.

On Aug. 1, with the Brewers leading the National League Central, they shipped Hader to the San Diego Padres for pitchers Taylor Rogers, Robert Gasser and Dinelson Lamet and outfielder Esteury Ruiz.

“The clubhouse was floored,” one source with knowledge of the situation said at the time.

“We both knew that day was coming,” another source said after the trade, “but it’s surreal to see it.”

Josh Hader trade backfires for Brewers, benefits Padres

The trade was a miscalculation by the Brewers. The clubhouse never recovered after losing Hader, with players like Eric Lauer and Devin Williams speaking out about the move (and the lack of moves that followed it). They fell from first place in the National League Central to falling seven games behind the Cardinals and missing the postseason.

Initially, Hader struggled in San Diego. He allowed 12 runs in his first 4.2 innings. He was removed from the closer role and moved to lower-leverage situations as he fought mechanical issues. Privately, both Hader and the Padres expressed confidence that he would overcome those struggles, as he had established himself as arguably the best reliever in baseball over the past six seasons (2.71 ERA, 15.2 strikeouts per nine innings)

Hader has done just that. He hasn’t allowed a run since Sept. 5, cleaning up the mechanical issues that plagued him, and registered the fastest pitches he has thrown in his career on Friday.

When discussing the trade after the season, Brewers executive David Stearns said: “We don’t get do-overs. Clearly it had a more pronounced impact on the team than I thought it would at the time, and the surrounding moves didn’t adequately fortify the team in Josh’s absence.”

It’s on Stearns and the Brewers front office to make moves to better position themselves for a playoff run in 2023. But as they formulate that plan, Hader and the Padres are on the verge of pulling off defeating the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers in what could be the biggest upset in postseason history.