How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?

The NBA Draft order is determined by the NBA Draft Lottery. How exactly does that work?

An NBA franchise’s future can be completely changed by the way a few ping-pong balls fall. Isn’t that pretty crazy?

The NBA Draft Lottery is what ultimately determines the order of the first 14 picks of the NBA Draft each June. It seems a little complicated when people start breaking down probabilities. Throw in things like protected picks, pick swaps, and other contingencies developed by trades and it can start to really make your head spin.

But, simply the lottery itself: How does that work?

How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?

The NBA Draft Lottery is, in essence, a game of probabilities. The league uses a lottery machine that holds 14 ping pong balls. Using 4-number combinations, that machine creates 1,001 possible combinations, of which 1,000 are assigned randomly to the 14 teams participating in the lottery.

The 14 teams that participate in the lottery are all 14 who did not qualify for the playoffs.

The odds work out such that teams with worse records (the bottom five) have more combinations assigned to them. Here are the odds for each team based on their record:

1. Worst record: 14% chance of winning (140 assigned combinations)
2. Second-worst record: 14% chance of winning (140 assigned combinations)
3. Third-worst record: 14% chance of winning (140 assigned combinations)
4. Fourth-worst record: 12.5% chance of winning (125 assigned combinations)
5. Fifth-worst record: 10.5% chance of winning (105 assigned combinations)
6. Sixth-worst record: 9% chance of winning (90 assigned combinations)
7. Seventh-worst record: 7.5% chance of winning (75 assigned combinations)
8. Eighth-worst record: 6% chance of winning (60 assigned combinations)
9. Ninth-worst record: 4.5% chance of winning (45 assigned combinations)
10. 10th-worst record: 3% chance of winning (30 assigned combinations)
11. 11th-worst record: 2% chance of winning (20 assigned combinations)
12. 12th-worst record: 1.5% chance of winning (15 assigned combinations)
13. 13th-worst record: 1% chance of winning (10 assigned combinations)
14. 14th-worst record: 0.5% chance of winning (5 assigned combinations)

Once assigned, the 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and mixed for 20 seconds. Balls are removed from the machine with a 10-second mixing process in between each ball removal. Once four balls are drawn, the team that owns that combination is awarded the pick. If the team that owns that combo has already been selected, the result is discarded, and the same goes for the 1 combination left unassigned.

The process is repeated for the first four picks of the draft, however, contrary to popular belief, the lottery process is not used for all 14 picks. Rather, the first four picks are done via the lottery, and the remaining 10 picks fall to form based on the team’s records (worst record drafts earlier). That means the team with the worst record can draft no worse than fifth overall.

Why isn’t the NBA Draft Lottery broadcasted?

The NBA Draft Lottery isn’t broadcasted live mainly because it’s rather boring and a somewhat complicated process. Since the outcome of the lottery machine are four random numbers rather than a ball with a team logo on it, it’s not exactly made for television. Nerds (myself included) would love to see it, but it’s a highly secretive event. No one is allowed to bring their phones in, even.

Select media members, team representatives, NBA officials, are there to observe the drawing. The results are sealed in envelopes to be revealed on national television which is the more exciting part.

Changes to the NBA Draft Lottery in recent years

The above lottery odds and process has been in place since 2019. Prior, the process was largely the same, except the worst team had higher odds to win (25 percent, rather than 14 percent). The first year the NBA used a lottery system to determine the draft order was 1985.

Now, with level odds, it reduces the value in being the worst team in the league. Ideally, this dissuades tanking. The play-in tournament is another way that the league has combated tanking for a draft pick.

Now, getting into the postseason is easier than ever with a little bit of late-season luck and solid play. For instance, this year, the Cavs and Hornets were rewarded with the opportunity to play-into the postseason. Even though they lost the play-in, they still have a chance at the top overall pick. That gives teams less incentive to shut star players down late in the season if they’re on the fringe of the postseason picture.

This article here has dates on when the NBA Draft Lottery and NBA Draft in 2023.