New Year’s Six bowl game projections: Who will play in Sugar, Orange, Rose and Cotton Bowl?

Which teams will slot into the New Year’s Six bowl games? The bowl game projections are clear as championship weekend wraps up.

It’s just about time for college football teams to learn their postseason fates. Four fortunate teams will get to play in the College Football Playoff. Another eight will take a place in the remaining New Year’s Six bowl games.

Teams like Georgia know what is in front of them. Teams like Penn State have to wait for results.

What do the New Year’s Six bowls look like right now?

New Year’s Six Bowl Game Projections for 2022

CFP Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. Ohio State

Georgia is the undisputed No. 1 in rankings. So they will get the home advantage of playing the No. 4 seed in the Peach Bowl.

We’re going to presume Ohio State will be the No. 4 behind TCU, despite the Horned Frogs’ loss in the Big 12 title game. The committee won’t want to punish TCU or Michigan for playing a conference title game by dropping them to fourth with losses while Ohio State got the advantage of not playing.

CFP Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs. TCU

It doesn’t really matter if Michigan is No. 2 and TCU is No. 3 or the other way around. Unless the committee is determined to stage a Big Ten rematch between the Wolverines and the Buckeyes (and that would be a shock), this will be the matchup.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State

With SEC champ Georgia in the CFP, the Sugar Bowl will take the next highest-ranked SEC team available. That’s Alabama, presuming they don’t make a shock leap into the playoff.

They’ll face off with Kansas State as the Big 12 champion following their win over TCU.

Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs. Clemson/North Carolina

Either Clemson or North Carolina will represent the ACC in the Orange Bowl as the conference champ.

Tennessee will get their NY6 berth by virtue of being the highest-ranked at-large team available.

Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Purdue/Penn State

Utah punched their ticket to the Rose Bowl by besting USC in the Pac-12 title game. Their opponent is contingent on the result of the Big Ten title game.

If Purdue upsets Michigan, they will represent the Big Ten as conference champions, booting Penn State from Pasadena.

However, if Michigan wins, Penn State will be selected as the top-ranked Big Ten team available with Ohio State heading to the playoff.

Cotton Bowl: Tulane vs. USC/Penn State

Tulane won the AAC and locked in their NY6 bid to cap a magical season. They are most likely to face off with another team enjoying a huge turnaround this year, USC, as an at-large selection.

There is a very slight chance Penn State could take the Cotton Bowl spot if Purdue beats Michigan and goes to the Rose Bowl. That would require the selection committee to drop USC below the Nittany Lions in the final rankings.

Would the committee do that? That would be an unexpected development.

USC ranked fourth to Penn State’s eighth in the pre-conference championship rankings. The committee was judging USC’s 12-game resume against Penn State’s 12-game resume and favored the Trojans.

To rank an 11-2 USC behind a 10-2 Penn State would mean doubly punishing the Trojans for playing an extra game while rewarding the Nittany Lions for sitting at home. USC is already set to lose their CFP bid by playing a 13th game. The committee isn’t likely to add insult to injury by keeping them out of the New Year’s Six.