This Carlos Correa stat shows why SF Giants won’t regret massive contract

The Carlos Correa deal is massive and lengthy, but stats indicate the SF Giants aren’t going to regret securing him.

Any time you see a massive, decade-plus-long deal in the MLB, it’s easy to think about what the tail-end of that contract will look like, and how it’s unlikely to be very good. Lengthy, positive-production careers are definitely more common than they are in the NBA and NFL, but it’s still scary to think about what a player may or may not be in a decade or more.

So, San Francisco Giants fans might have some understandable trepidation thinking about Carlos Correa’s massive deal. It’s for 13 years and $350 million.

To think that a senior in high school will be over 30 years old by the time this contract is over is just absurd.

The discourse on these deals is often centered on how mind-blowing they are and the fact that they won’t pan out. Let’s invert that and look at a stat that shows why this was well worth it for the Giants.

One stat justifies the Carlos Correa contract

Ben Kaspick collected the wRC+ of every shortstop since 2015 with over 1,000 plate appearances. Correa comes in just below one, Fernando Tatis Jr.:

wRC+ is Weighted Runs Created-Plus,and it’s runs created standardized to account for factors like the playing location. Correa is well-above average.

Last season, Correa’s 140 in wRC+ ranked ninth in the MLB among shortstops. It’s steadily improved over the last few years:

• 2020: 94
• 2021: 133
• 2022: 140

Past performance isn’t always a perfect indicator of the future, but the Giants are ostensibly comfortable with what they’ve seen from Correa and confident his strong play will continue. Given the opportunity to be more of a key cog in Minnesota last year, he put up his best wRC+ yet, so that’s a great sign that he’s ready for stardom in San Fran.

No doubt, the latter years of his contract won’t be as good as the first, but as long as the Giants can piece together some strong years on the front end, it’ll be well worth it.

After going hard for Aaron Judge and missing out, the Giants had to do something like this.

Stats suggest Correa has what the team needs to make it happen.