Sentry Tournament of Champions 2023 picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks to kick off the 2023 season at Kapalua with the Sentry Tournament of Champions picks, best bets and more.

It’s been a few-weeks hiatus for the PGA Tour and a much longer hiatus during the heart of football season for me with the PGA Tour expert picks. But guess what, both are very much back as we kick off the 2023 calendar year with the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

We’ve got a limited field this year, as always, out in Hawaii set to tee it up at The Plantation Course at Kapalua. 39 players are competing this week for the Jan. 5-8 tournament that will get things going. It’s not just champions from the past season as qualifiers for the TOUR Championship are also eligible and playing this week, but it does make for some short odds across the board.

So where do we go with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets this week for the Sentry Tournament of Champions? Let’s get after it and dive into the numbers.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for Sentry Tournament of Champions: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for Sentry Tournament of Champions: Sungjae Im (+100)

The odds aren’t great here, but even money for Sungjae Im to slide into the top-quarter of the leaderboard for a 39-player event feels too good to be true if we’re being honest. Sungjae has finished inside the Top 10 in both of his appearances at Kapalua and is eighth in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the past 20 rounds. He’s a great fit for what the course asks of players and as long he doesn’t have a rare blow-up week with the putter, this is a confident bet.

One and Done Pick for Sentry Tournament of Champions: Luke List

In all honesty, I’m just taking a flier here with one of the longest shots on the board who, in theory, could pop at Kapalua. This early in the season, I’m not trying to burn a huge name in the One and Done, so I’m taking Luke List. His combination of length off the tee and approach play should benefit him and we just need a mediocre week on the greens — which are a slower version of Bermuda than normal — for him to make good on this pick and at least get a bit of money. Plus, it’s a no-cut event, which does raise the floor at least somewhat.

Pick to Win Sentry Tournament of Champions: Xander Schauffele (+1000)

As well as I believe players like Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and others could play this week, I can’t stop looking at Xander Schauffele at +1000. He won here in 2019, finished second in 2020 and hasn’t been outside of the Top 12 in each of the past four years. Plus, he hasn’t finished outside of the Top 10 in any of his last five starts, even if he’s not been all that active in the fall swing. His all-around game with length and traditionally good iron play set him up beautifully and he should be pushing to make it two victories for his career at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Sentry Tournament of Champions picks and best bets

Jon Rahm to finish Top 5 (+145)

Over the past five years at Kapalua, Jon Rahm hasn’t finished outside of the Top 10. He’s also finished second twice, including last year when he somehow shot 33-under and still was one stroke behind Cam Smith. Now that Smith is LIVing his life, though, Rahm is one of the best horses for this course in the field and has been playing extremely well in Europe. He’s the favorite to win outright (+600) but I like the value more for a Top 5 while still getting plus odds.

Tournament Matchup: Max Homa (-108) over Will Zalatoris

I’m not quite sure what I’m missing with this, but Will Zalatoris hasn’t played since picking up the first victory of his career win at Memphis when he immediately after suffered a back injury. He is only four-or-so months removed from that but hasn’t played competitively since. Meanwhile, Kapalua is a course that demands strong approach play and Homa has displayed that beautifully over the past few years. As the slight underdog, I feel comfortable riding with Homa in a head-to-head situation.

Matt Fitzpatrick to finish Top 10 (+135)

Matt Fitzpatrick quite notably added distance off the tee over the past year but the rest of his game didn’t suffer. In fact, you could make the argument it only got better. He should be seasoned after playing in Europe during the fall swing and even during the PGA Tour’s hiatus, including three straight Top 13 finishes to his credit. Getting plus odds for him to finish Top 10 in a limited-field event is too sweet to overlook.

Longshot pick to win Sentry Tournament of Champions: Russell Henley (+4200)

Before you say this isn’t that long of a shot, more half of the 39-player field has odds better than +4200 odds, so this is on the bottom half of the betting board. And again, we’re at a place where ball-striking with irons should be highly important and where birdies are going to come in bunches. Russell Henley can check both of those boxes and, as a longshot, he offers some good value for how competitive he could be this week.

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