Heat vs. Lakers Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, January 4 (Go under with LeBron out)

The Los Angeles Lakers play host to the Miami Heat on Wednesday night without most, if not all, of their star power.

LeBron James is set to miss this game with a non-COVID illness, leaving the Lakers shorthanded with Anthony Davis is still out with a foot injury. The team will host the Miami Heat, who are trying to get back on track after being the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference last season, but are currently seventh heading into Wednesday’s action.

The line has moved about five points on the news that James will miss this one, but where is the betting value now?

First, let’s check out the odds:

Heat vs. Lakers odds, spread and total

Heat vs. Lakers prediction and pick

Of course James’ impact has been immense to the Lakers, he’s in the 86th percentile in terms of net rating this season per Cleaning The Glass, and the impact will be felt on both sides, but this spread has been blown out of proportion that bettors should look for other ways to play this game.

My favorite look is on the under. The Lakers offense is going to take a significant hit without him on the floor, an offense that struggles to begin with, posting the 18th highest effective field goal percentage on the year. However, the Heat offense is even more limited this season, 24th in eFG% and more reliant on their versatile defense, which is anchored by big man Bam Adebayo.

Overall, Miami’s defense is top 10 in defensive rating and should keep a lid on this already limited Lakers offense.

The total dropped three points since opening at 229.5, but I still think there’s room to go. I’ll back the under in what should be an ugly, low scoring game with James out for the game.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.