NFL Hot Seat: Predicting 2 head coach openings and 3 potential surprises

Black Monday is tomorrow in the NFL. What teams could be looking for new head coaches in the annual hiring and firing cycle?

The NFL has tried to warn teams not to waste money by firing head coaches too early but few owners appear likely to take the league’s advice. Carolina, Indianapolis and Denver have already fired their head coaches in-season and they surely won’t be the NFL teams looking for a new head coach on Black Monday.

What job openings could be available after the conclusion of the Week 18 action? Let’s take a look at three near locks, along with a few surprise candidates, below.

NFL Head Coaches Who Could Be Fired After Week 18

Lock-Kliff Kingsbury

Arizona just gave Kingsbury a massive contract extension last winter but the organization is already doing its homework on potential candidates to replace him. This makes sense considering the absolute disaster this season has been for the Cardinals, who fell from a playoff team to last place in the NFC West and had one of their assistant coaches get arrested in Mexico City when the team was playing an international game.

The fact that longtime GM Steve Keim is taking a leave of absence to address his health only adds to the uncertainty that Kingsbury will face. With Kyler Murray failing to take a step forward before tearing his ACL in Week 13, the Cardinals will likely look to salvage their franchise quarterback with a new regime.

Lock-Lovie Smith

The Texans felt like they were trying to give their head coaching job to Josh McCown last offseason before pivoting to Smith late in the process. Smith has done an admirable job with a limited roster as Houston has played hard throughout the season but this felt like a one-and-done situation for the Texans to reset the deck.

Jack Easterby was fired in season and the Texans will likely look to bring in an offensive-minded head coach to help groom whatever quarterback they draft in the first round. It certainly isn’t fair to Smith, who was handed a no-win scenario, but Houston will most certainly move on after this season.

Surprise-Sean McVay

This wouldn’t take the form of a firing but more of a resignation in the Sean Payton mold. Sean McVay nearly walked away from the Rams after last season to work in television but opted to return to try and pursue a repeat title.

Things completely fell apart for Los Angeles in 2022 as injuries wiped out the team’s stars and the group’s lack of depth as a result of trading away a boatload of draft picks was exposed. It wouldn’t be shocking to see McVay accept a TV gig to step away from the coaching life style for a few years before returning in a plush situation.

Surprise-Mike Vrabel

Vrabel has done a lot of winning in Tennessee but the way this season ended did a lot of damage to his resume. There is already some turmoil with the Titans after the organization fired GM Jon Robinson with the team off to a 7-3 start only to see them lose seven in a row to fall out of the playoffs entirely.

The idea of pairing a first-time GM with an established head coach like Vrabel can lead to some friction if the executive wants to reshape the team as Vrabel needs to win now. Firing Vrabel would allow the Titans to have a complete reset, which the organization may need after the way the 2022 season finished.

Surprise-Mike McDaniel

The bloom has come off the rose quickly with McDaniel, who got the Dolphins off to an 8-3 start before dropping five straight games to fall out of a playoff spot. Miami can still get in the postseason with a win over the Jets today and some help in the form of a Buffalo win over New England, but there are reports emerging that Stephen Ross is furious at the way this season has unfolded.

A six-game losing streak that takes Miami from potential home-field advantage in the AFC to out of the playoffs could tempt Ross to clean house, which would certainly be an overreaction based on the work McDaniel did with Tua Tagovailoa this season. The way Tagovailoa’s concussions have been mishandled, however, is surely a demerit as well as the fact that the offense went completely in the tank with Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson under center.