It happened pretty quickly, but Villanova is no longer one of the top teams in the Big East. It doesn’t look like Kyle Neptune has kept the program rolling in this transition from Jay Wright, but a second half turnaround is absolutely in the cards for the Wildcats.
Last time out they lost to Xavier, 88-80, to fall to 8-8 and 2-3 in conference play.
They haven’t fallen to the bottom of the conference just yet, that’s a space DePaul is familiar with. The Blue Demons 7-9 overall, but 1-4 in conference play looks a lot worse than Villanova’s predicament.
Here are the odds for this Big East matchup with Villanova as a road favorite.
Villanova vs. DePaul odds, spread and total
Villanova vs. DePaul prediction and pick
Jay Wright’s Villanova teams never got sped up, they always played their pace and dictated the terms to their opponents not the other way around. Kyle Neptune’s team is a little bit different. Xavier was able to speed up the Wildcats and force them into a track meet, which is not Villanova’s strong suit.
The Wildcats are 327th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo.
DePaul also wants to get out and run, it is only 73rd in adjusted tempo, but is 56th in possessions per game.
I imagine the Blue Demons try to run tonight, especially feeding off a home crowd. They’re 215th in offensive efficiency, so DePaul needs to have a lot of possessions to put up points.
Nova is 64th in offensive efficiency, so even if it is forced to play fast, it can still handle DePaul, but it’s a matter of how the Wildcats project the rest of the season, because if they’re willing to let this team get them out of their style of play then that’s a terrible sign.
I like Villanova to cover tonight, but that’s not my favorite play.
Both of these teams are outside of the top 200 in defensive efficiency, so I love the over. I’ll be betting both Villanova and the over on the total, you can tail me on both if you like, but my official pick here will be over 141.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change