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NFL playoff upset picks for Wild Card Weekend

By Iain MacMillan

Dec 24, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) breaks a tackle against the Minnesota Vikings during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 24, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) breaks a tackle against the Minnesota Vikings during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports /
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Strap in, the NFL Playoffs are here.

There are six games for us to watch and bet on spanning from Saturday afternoon to Monday night.

With the NFL postseason, comes chaos. You can all but guarantee the favorites won’t go undefeated. There will be upsets.

So, which underdogs will win and advance to the divisional round? I have two upset picks that I’ll be betting on.

Let’s dive into my two favorite upset picks for Wild Card Weekend.

NFL upset picks

  • Dolphins +550 vs. Bills
  • Giants +140 vs. Vikings

Dolphins +550 vs. Bills

This is my big upset pick of the week. Now, before you send me mean tweets, hear me out. Despite the Dolphins stumbling down the stretch, I firmly believe they’re a much better team than people give them credit for.

For example, if you look at net yards per play, it’s the Dolphins who come in at 5th at +0.8, slightly behind the top four teams on the odds list, the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, and 49ers. Not only that, but the Dolphins have already beaten the Bills this season and then they gave them all they could handle in Buffalo just a few weeks ago, losing by a measly three points.

Tua Tagovailoa is out, and obviously, they would have a better chance of pulling off the upset if he played, but I still wouldn’t be shocked for Miami to pull off the unexpected.

Giants +140 vs. Vikings

This one is a little less crazy, but I think the Giants can beat the Vikings in Minnesota. The Giants lost to the Vikings on Christmas Eve by a final score of 27-24 on a last-second field foal, but I would argue the Giants severely outplayed them. The Giants outgained them in yards per play, 6.7 to 5.0.

New York ran the ball all over Minnesota, averaging 6 yards per carry. Two turnovers ended up costing them, but I have faith the Giants can pull off the upset and get their revenge.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.