Sony Open 2023 picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Golf is staying in Hawaii this week at Waiʻalae Country Club for the 2023 Sony Open and we have our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for this week.

The two-event Hawaii swing in golf comes to a close this week as the 2023 Sony Open will take place again this year at Waiʻalae Country Club where Hideki Matsuyama scorched past Russell Henley one year ago. We’re hoping for more drama, especially after Jon Rahm’s incredible back-nine comeback to beat Collin Morikawa last week at the Sentry.

Our best bets and PGA Tour expert picks at Kapalua went decently well. It was a tough beat with Xander Schauffele given his injury and WD as our outright pick and Sungjae Im faded to miss the Top 10. But Luke List gave us a Top 20 as our One and Done and the rest of our best bets hit with Matt Fitzpatrick finishing Top 10, Rahm clearly finishing Top 5 and Max Homa edging out Will Zalatoris in a matchup.

Now it’s onto Wai’alae and our PGA Tour expert picks for the 2023 Sony Open, giving our Top 10, One and Done, outright winner and then our best bets for the week ahead.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for Sony Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for Sony Open: Russell Henley (+210)

If you look at the recent history, the putting has been a disaster for Russell Henley as he’s lost 0.86 strokes per round over his last 36. But the approach has remained extremely strong at 0.56 strokes gained per round there and he’s gained in every other category besides putting too. Now he’s going back to a tournament where he’s finished second and T11 in his past two starts. I love the fit and think he shows up strong again.

Pick to Win Sony Open and One and Done Pick: Cameron Davis (+2900)

We’re double-dipping with the pick to win and One and Done pick as we’re taking Cameron Davis to get another PGA Tour victory under his belt this week. Davis is a terrific ball-striker and can dial down off the tee at a course like Wai’alae to succeed. But he’s an underrated overall player and can get hot with the putter. He’s got three Top 31 finishes here in as many starts here, including a Top 10. I like for him to break through again and really come up big with a win.

Sony Open picks and best bets

Adam Svensson to finish Top 20 (+260)

Adam Svensson won relatively recently at the RSM Classic and has been playing quite well of late overall. He’s continued to show off his DNA as a ball-striking king but the big key is he’s been a slightly above average putter as well, which is why he has two Top 40 finishes to go with his win in his last three starts. He finished T7 at the Sony Open last year, so +260 to only be in the Top 20 on a course that fits his game is value I can’t look past.

Keith Mitchell to finish Top 20 (+165)

The profile of Keith Mitchell lately hasn’t been all that good as of late as he’s been gaining off the tee but nowhere else. There’s a Top 10 finish in there but the rest of it has been forgettable. When it comes to Wai’alae, though, Mitchell has been a stud with three Top 20 finishes in his last four starts here and four Top 25s in his last five starts. He was T7 last year and clearly has good feels with a game that fits the mold to succeed at this venue.

Tournament Matchup: Tom Kim (-102) over Sungjae Im

I was looking for a way to bet Tom Kim since he’s the favorite for a reason with the ability be an ace with his irons on a course that requires that but doesn’t require length off the tee. So getting him as the slight underdog in a matchup with Sungjae Im was my look. Kim is gaining a ridiculous 1.17 strokes per round on approach over his last 32 rounds. On the contrary, Im hasn’t been as dialed with his approach and, though he’s playing well, he hasn’t been playing as well. That’s the key here, so give me the favorite for the tournament in a matchup where he’s somehow not the favorite.

Longshot pick to win Sony Open: Mark Hubbard (+14000)

This is honestly a gut feeling based on Mark Hubbard’s top form. His recent form is four straight missed cuts and he’s missed the cut at the Sony Open in two of his three starts here. But he’s still striking the ball great on approach and he can parlay that into a great finish if the putter is on for him and he can keep his short driving on the planet earth.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Sentry: 3-2, +2.226 units (0-1 on outrights, 0.5 unit bet)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $292,000 (Luke List taken at Sentry)

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