Heat vs. Mavericks prediction and odds for Friday, January 20 (Road win for Miami?)

Friday’s early primetime game is in Dallas for the Dallas Mavericks’ matchup with the Miami Heat, who have come on strong as of late in the East.

Miami is now the No. 6 seed in the Conference, winning seven of its last 10 games. With Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo and others coming back from injuries, the Heat finally look like a contender again after a slow start to the 2022-23 season.

Dallas is in a bit of a tough spot, losing three straight games to fall to fifth in the West. The Mavs are also without forward Christian Wood for at least the next week after he suffered a fractured thumb.

That’s going to put even more pressure on Luka Doncic to score the ball, although wing Tim Hardaway Jr. (ankle, probable) is expected back in the lineup tonight.

Here’s how things look in the latest odds, as well as my prediction for this matchup:

Heat vs. Mavericks odds, spread and total

Heat vs. Mavericks prediction and pick

Both of these teams have struggled against the spread this season ranking 30th (Dallas) and 28th (Miami) in ATS record.

However, the Heat have a bit of an excuse since they’ve dealt with so many key injuries early on in the 2022-23 season.

Miami has improved lately, covering the spread in six of its last 10 games. Dallas is just 8-12-1 ATS as a home favorite, but it has gone 16-7 straight up at home this season.

So naturally, I’m taking Miami to pull off the small upset.

Why?

Well over the last 10 games, the Heat rank fifth in the NBA in net rating compared to Dallas at 26th (!!). The Mavericks have been brutal defensively, ranking dead last in the NBA in defensive rating over that stretch.

Now, Dallas doesn’t have Wood, who is the team’s second leading scorer this season. A healthy Heat team should be able to pick up this win on the road.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

—

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.