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TCU vs. Kansas prediction and odds for Saturday, January 21 (Trust Horned Frogs as big underdogs)

By Reed Wallach

Jan 18, 2023; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; TCU Horned Frogs guard Mike Miles Jr. (1) shoots a three pointer over West Virginia Mountaineers guard Erik Stevenson (10) during the first half at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 18, 2023; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; TCU Horned Frogs guard Mike Miles Jr. (1) shoots a three pointer over West Virginia Mountaineers guard Erik Stevenson (10) during the first half at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports /
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Kansas had its 10-game winning streak snapped in overtime against Kansas State on Tuesday, but this team is no doubt in the mix for a second straight National Championship.

The Jayhawks are at the top of a crowded and talented Big 12 and welcome another formidable foe in TCU on Saturday afternoon. The Jayhawks have pulled out tight games at home multiple times this season, will this be another barnburner on Saturday afternoon?

Here are the odds for this Big 12 meeting:

TCU vs. Kansas odds, spread and total

TCU vs. Kansas prediction and pick

These are two teams with Final Four upside and I can’t pass up catching this TCU team getting this many points.

While many will point to Tuesday’s game where the Horned Frogs couldn’t keep up with a winless (in conference play) West Virginia team on the road, failing to cover the 2.5-point spread, this is a different setup as TCU is expected to get blown out by a Jayhawks team that hasn’t done that yet in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks have won five games in league play by an average of 5.6 and one game by more than four points.

The Horned Frogs are a trendy underdog because of their ability to get to the rim and take high-quality shots. No, the team can’t shoot it from three (285th in the country) but they have the second-highest rim rate in the country and shoot 61% on shots at the rim.

While Kansas is a top 30 three-point shooting team, TCU funnels teams inside the arc at the 65th-highest rate in the country. If KU has to take contested twos against a physical defense in TCU that is allowing the 34th-lowest effective field goal percentage, this game can be tight throughout.

TCU is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog and Kansas is 5-10 as a favorite. I’m backing the season-long trends on Saturday afternoon.

PICK: TCU +7.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.