VCU vs. Richmond prediction and odds for Friday, January 20 (Back small home favorite)

VCU and Richmond are set to do battle in an in-state showdown on Friday night.

The Rams have been scorching in Atlantic 10 play this season, shooting over 47% from beyond the arc, but will face a stout Richmond defense. Can the Spiders snap VCU’s four game winning streak in what is a competitive A-10 race?

Here are the odds for this one:

VCU vs. Richmond odds, spread and total

VCU vs. Richmond prediction and pick

This is a fantastic sell high spot on VCU, who is shooting 47% from 3 in conference play, which has lifted its season long average to nearly 36% on the year. The Rams are a solid 3-point shooting team, but 47% is egregious and won’t keep up.

Now they face a Richmond team that lost both matchups last season (the first one by two points at home), but has the compact defense to give this Rams defense some trouble. While VCU is on fire from 3, it is last in conference 3-point rate as it tries to put pressure on the rim. However, that leads to a ton of turnovers, the team is 323rd in turnover rate this season and Richmond does a great job of keeping teams outside the paint with their disciplined gap defense.

This is a great regression spot on the road in a rivalry game as Richmond is an elite rebounding team (top 30 in the country) and also can withstand the Rams heavy ball pressure on the other end, the Spiders are top third in the country in protecting the rock.

Lastly, and maybe most importantly, the team is on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of shooting regression. The Spiders lead the A-10 in 3-point rate this season, but are shooting 29% as a team, which has brought down their season long average to 35%.

These teams are due to go in opposite directions, so I’ll grab the home team at inside of a bucket.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.