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Providence vs. Villanova prediction and odds for Sunday, January 29 (Back Nova as home dog)

By Peter Dewey

Villanova Wildcats guard Caleb Daniels. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Villanova Wildcats guard Caleb Daniels. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports /
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It’s been a disappointing season for the Villanova Wildcats, who are underdogs at home on Sunday in their first meeting with the Providence Friars this season.

Providence, led by Bryce Hopkins, is one of the better teams in the Big East this season and has gone 5-2 against the spread on the road in the 2022-23 season.

However, the Friars have struggled in their two toughest road tests, losing to Creighton and Marquette.

While Villanovan has struggled ATS at home this season, the team is 6-2 in eight games. Kyle Neptune’s squad plays at a very deliberate pace, and that could help it flip this game on the Friars, who like to play a lot more uptempo.

Here’s a look at the latest odds and my pick for this matchup:

Providence vs. Villanova odds, spread and total

Providence vs. Villanova prediction and pick

There’s no doubt that the Friars are the better team this season, but I think Villanova has value as a short dog at home.

The Wildcats’ only home losses came to Xavier and Marquetee, two teams that are ranked higher than Providence. Nova also kept both games close, losing by two to the Golden Eagles and eight to the Musketeers.

As underdogs of at least one-point this season, the Wildcats are a perfect 3-0 ATS.

The question in this game will be who controls the pace. Nova plays extremely slow, playing at an adjusted tempo of 63.4 compared to the Friars at 67.2.

The Wildcats are usually a good shooting team, but they are shooting just 33.3 percent from beyond the arc this season. However, these teams are very close in true shooting percentage with Villanova sitting at 71st in the country and the Friars clocking in at 63rd.

I understand that it’s an ugly play to back Nova in this spot, but the Friars are being overvalued on the road for picking wins against bad teams early in the season.

Villanova shouldn’t be a home dog, so I’ll gladly take the 1.5.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.