AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023 picks: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in golf this week with the three-course rotation and 54-hole cut returning.

Jon Rahm’s winning streak has come to an end and now he’s just done playing…well, he’s just not in the field for this week’s PGA Tour stop at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but the Spaniard on an absolute heater still finished Top 10 last week at Torrey Pines despite playing horribly (by his standards) on Sunday.

For our PGA Tour expert picks, Rahm falling out of the Top 5 on Sunday set us up for a losing week, down 0.9 units. However, we were all over Max Homa to finish in the Top 10, though it would’ve been nice to have him as an outright. Speaking of, Xander Schauffele was Top 20 but didn’t win, which was the story for Taylor Montgomery (Top 20) and Taylor Pendrith (Top 40) as well.

Now it’s on to Pebble Beach Golf Links where we’ll have long rounds thanks to the Pro-Am event but will also have three courses played in rotation: Pebble Beach, Monterrey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill. Each player will get a round at each course before a 54-hole cut and the Sunday finish at Pebble Beach.

With some notables like Jordan Spieth, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland and last year’s champion Tom Hoge in the field, it should be a good week of golf. And we have our PGA Tour expert picks and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am best bets to get your ready for it.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Farmers: 6-13-1, -1.914 units (0-4 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $553,137.22 (Jason Day taken at Farmers, $282,750)

PGA Tour expert picks for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Ben Griffin (+550)

We’re taking a big swing here but it’s one that I simply love. Ben Griffin has been T32 or better in six of his last seven starts. On top of that, he’s gained strokes in every category throughout that run, most importantly coming in at 0.55 strokes per round on approach, which is going to be pivotal this week. He’s been trending like a buoy at every venue but is now at a course that should suit him better than most and I think he shows up big for it.

Pick to Win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (0.5 units): Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1100)

Prior to his torrid and incredible overall 2022 that included the US Open win, Fitzpatrick finished T6 at Pebble Beach last year. And since then, all he’s done is fully elevate his game to becoming one of the best drivers in the world, a still highly reliable iron player, and a terrific player around and on the greens as well. In a field where Spieth is being overvalued and he’s simply played better overall than someone like Hovland, I’m going with Fitzpatrick to pick up where he left off on US soil.

One and Done Pick for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Matthew Fitzpatrick

This might be a little early in the One and Done to take someone like Fitzpatrick, but I’m ready to burn a big name and he’s the one for me at Pebble Beach. If I like him to win, then I should definitely like the upside he potentially brings as a OAD pick this week.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks and best bets

Viktor Hovland and Matthew Fitzpatrick to both finish Top 20 (+135)

We’re getting a little cute here with a Top 20 parlay but I wanted to get the number down for who I think are simply the two most talented players in the field. Hovland hasn’t finished worse than T23 in his last five starts, a run that includes his win at the Hero, and Fitzpatrick is T13 or better in each of his last four starts. Hovland also won the US Amateur at Pebble Beach and finished T12 in the US Open played here as well. I obviously have capital on Fitzpatrick winning, so I love getting plus value for two players to finish Top 20 when I think that’s the floor in this field for both.

Nick Taylor to finish Top 20 (+230)

The form hasn’t totally been there for Nick Taylor as of late given that he’s missed three cuts in his last six starts and has only one Top 20 finish over that span. Taylor has been an absolute horse to hitch your wagon to at Pebble Beach, though, with a win and T14 finish in two of his last three starts. His approach play and solid short game should play well and this seems to be good value for a player who has still maintained the strengths of his game during his recent up-and-down finishes.

Tournament Matchup: Joel Dahmen (-102) over Justin Rose

After four consecutive Top 30 finishes, people are starting to warm up a bit on Justin Rose but I don’t like the look of it. Over his last 20 rounds, he’s still slightly losing on approach and has been gaining a lot with the putter. For him, I don’t find that sustainable. As for Joel Dahmen, while he just had a child (congrats on the SG: Perspective), he’s been in the Top 10 in each of his last four starts and has the ball-striking pedigree on short tracks like this to take advantage. As the slight underdog to Rose in the matchup, I love Dahmen this week.

Longshot pick to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Matthias Schmid (+21000)

Though Schmid has never played this event, his game appears ideal for it and the way he pops sporadically (two Top 6 finishes and two missed cuts in his last four worldwide starts) make him an interesting dark horse play. He’s positive off the tee and on approach in his last 20 rounds and has gained 1.27 strokes per round on the greens over that span as well. I like for him to show up and make a little noise at Pebble Beach this week.

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