Villanova vs. Marquette prediction and odds for Wednesday, February 1 (Home favorite undervalued?)

Jan 28, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Marquette Golden Eagles forward David Joplin (23) reacts after hitting a three-point shot in the second half against the DePaul Blue Demons at Wintrust Arena. Marquette defeated DePaul 89-69. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports /

It’s rare to think that a team that a top 15 team is “undervalued” against a 10-11 opponent at home in conference play, but that might be the case on Wednesday night with Marquette.

The Golden Eagles host Villanova in a rematch from a thrilling New Year’s Eve matchup that Marquette won by two. The Wildcats are desperate for wins under first year coach Kyle Neptune, and couldn’t get enough of a boost from the return of veteran Justin Moore in Sunday’s loss to Providence.

Marquette has some injury concerns heading into this game, but the line has shifted drastically from the double digit opening spread, has it gone too far? Here are the odds:

Villanova vs. Marquette odds, spread and total

Villanova vs. Marquette prediction and pick

Justin Moore is back, and logged 30 minutes after rupturing his Achilles in the NCAA Tournament last season, and Marquette may not be with Kam Jones, who hurt his hip in the second half of the Golden Eagles win against DePaul over the weekend.

Jones is a key cog to the best offense in the country, the team’s leading scorer, Marquette has been more than 13 points per 100 possessions better on offense with him on the floor this season, per Hoop Explorer, but I can’t justify this drop in point spread.

The Golden Eagles offense may miss Jones, but this is team that runs a five-out offense that gets dribble penetration to fuel their deadly offense both inside and out. Marquette is shooting 61% on two-point tries this season and Villanova’s defense will not have the speed to keep up with their slashing opponent.

Now that this number sits at Marquette -6 on the idea that this Nova team is rejuvenated with Moore back in the lineup and the Golden Eagles can be short handed, I’ll play against it and take a top 15 team in the country.

Villanova is 2-9 straight up against top 100 opponents this season, and I don’t believe they will keep up on the road.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.