Super Bowl Favorites: List, results & performance for the past 10 years

Let’s see how the Super Bowl favorites have performed in the last 10 big games.

The Philadelphia Eagles are slight favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 57.

The NFC champion Eagles are 1.5-point favorites over the AFC champion Chiefs on a neutral site. It is the Eagles’ fourth trip to the Super Bowl in franchise history. To date, they are 1-2 all time, having won most recently over the New England Patriots at the end of the 2017 season. For the Chiefs, it is their fifth trip to the game. They are 2-2 all time, winning it all most recently in 2019.

Let’s take a look at the last 10 Super Bowl favorites, how they did against the spread and if they won the game or not.

Super Bowl favorites: Results and performance over last 10 title bouts

These are the previous 10 betting lines heading into the big game.

• 47: San Francisco 49ers (-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens
• 48: Denver Broncos (-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks
• 49: New England Patriots (PICK ‘EM) vs. Seattle Seahawks
• 50: Carolina Panthers (-5.5) vs. Denver Broncos
• 51: New England Patriots (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons
• 52: New England Patriots (-5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• 53: New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
• 54: Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
• 55: Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 56: Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Here is how the favorites performed against the spread.

• 47: San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens (+4)
• 48: Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks (+2)
• 49: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
• 50: Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos (+5.5)
• 51: New England Patriots (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons
• 52: New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+5)
• 53: New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
• 54: Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
• 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
• 56: Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)

And these are the final scores of the last 10 Super Bowls.

• 47: Baltimore Ravens 34, San Francisco 49ers 31
• 48: Seattle Seahawks 43, Denver Broncos 8
• 49: New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
• 50: Denver Broncos 24, Carolina Panthers 10
• 51: New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28
• 52: Philadelphia Eagles 41, New England Patriots 33
• 53: New England Patriots 13, Los Angeles Rams 3
• 54: Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 20
• 55: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Kansas City Chiefs 9
• 56: Los Angeles Rams 23, Cincinnati Bengals 20

If we want to remove Super Bowl 49 from the equation because it was a pick ’em between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks, you are better off taking the points than swallowing them. The underdogs have hit in six of the last 10 Super Bowls, while only three favorites have covered the spread. Amazingly, the spread has not been bigger than 5.5 points!

Even more absurd, the team that has won nine of the last 10 has either been an underdog, been a pick ’em or covered the spread. Fate would have it, the last year saw the Los Angeles Rams win outright, but not cover the 3.5-point spread to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Rams only won by a field goal. In short, if you are going to pick against the spread, parlay that with an outright winner.

Ultimately, the 1.5-point spread is to narrow to take or swallow the points and not take that team as the outright winner in a parlay. If the Eagles beat the Chiefs by one point, then damn, but like, if you think the Eagles are going to win, take them at -1.5. Conversely, if you are all about the Chiefs, then take them to win at +1.5. We are not going to see the Chiefs lose but cover like the Bengals.

Even if the spread is close does not guarantee we will see a close game, as blowouts do happen.