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North Carolina vs. Wake Forest prediction and odds for Tuesday, February 7 (Tar Heels set for road win)

By Reed Wallach

Jan 21, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot (5) and forward Leaky Black (1) react in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 21, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Armando Bacot (5) and forward Leaky Black (1) react in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /
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North Carolina is searching for their National Championship form from last season, but it’s been nowhere to be found in ACC play.

The Tar Heels couldn’t knock off Duke on the road over the weekend, and are in a precarious position as it relates to their NCAA Tournament hopes. They head to Wake Forest, who is firmly on the bubble and desperate for quality wins. Both teams can use a win here and the line is a pick ’em, so how should we play it? Let’s first check out the odds:

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest odds, spread and total

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest prediction and pick

UNC won the first meeting between these two back on January 4th, pulling away in the second half to win 88-79 behind a dominant outing from both Armando Bacot and RJ Davis. While Davis poured in 27 points and hit on five three’s, Bacot is the difference maker in this matchup. The Tar Heels big man scored 21 points and grabbed seven rebounds while dishing out five assists.

The Demon Deacans don’t have a frontcourt presence to slow down Bacot and I believe he’s in line for a big outing once again on Tuesday night. Wake Forest is 245th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim and don’t generate turnovers whatsoever. The Tar Heels offense should dominate inside.

On the defensive end, UNC will need to slow down the flame throwing Wake Forest offense that is shooting 38% from three in conference games, but I do believe the Tar Heels are equipped to slow down Tyree Appleby and the Deac’s offense with their ability to force teams into mid range jump shots. The team has the lowest rim and three rate allowed in conference games, per ShotQuality, which is how Wake Forest generates most of their offense.

The Tar Heels defense is likely underrated in this one and I think Bacot’s size down low is enough to push them over the top in this one.