The 1 best (and worst) bet at UFC 284
By Harry Mac
The single best and worst bet gamblers can make at UFC 284.
UFC 284 is gearing up to be one of the biggest cards in UFC history. Coming to fans live from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, the card features no shortage of hometown talent. Headlined by featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski moving up to lightweight to challenge Islam Makhachev in an attempt to achieve double champ status, this top pound-for-pound clash promises to deliver fireworks. Even better, you can find the UFC 284 best and worst bet below.
Lucky for all the degenerates out there, there are some fantastic value spots, including a handful of live dogs and other plus-money spots.
The UFC 284 best bet isn’tIslam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
It’s always easy to try to force a bet on the biggest fight of the night just for the sake of betting it, but there doesn’t seem to be a great value side there, although no one can be faulted for taking pound-for-pound No. 1 Alexander Volkanovski as a +320 underdog.
In a sport where value and the odds are so important, often MMA bettors will find themselves playing bets based more so on the price than anything else, and our UFC 284 best bet is just that. Often, bettors can find good value on plays with smaller handles and less refinement, and it’s always a wise strategy to find spots where the book might be overvaluing or mispricing a fighter.
Currently, Tyson Pedro is a -250 favorite over Modestas Bukuaskas, the latter of whom is making his UFC return after suffering a gruesome knee injury in a 2021 bout with Khalil Rountree and working his way back to the UFC through Cage Warriors, eventually regaining his 205 pound title.
Pedro meanwhile is 2-0 since returning from an injury of his own, but it feels like his -250 line in this fight is heavily inflated based on two quick finishes of sub-UFC level opponents in Ike Villanueva and Harry Hunsucker. As such, you’re paying a premium on a fighter who is by no means a world beater and on value alone, Bukauskas is the play here.
Value is king in MMA, and it’s almost always a bad idea to pay a premium price for a fighter who is coming off two very lopsided victories against subpar opponents. Top that off with the fact that this is a short-notice opportunity for Bukauskas who makes his UFC return after a bad injury and one would have to imagine Bukauskas will be extremely motivated to leave an impression in his octagon return, especially considering most fighters don’t tend to get three chances in the UFC.
Pedro has also been finished before, famously, or infamously depending on who you ask, being finished by Shogun Rua so it is not like Pedro is infallible by any means.
Worst bet for UFC 284: Kleydson Rodrigues -350
Historically, fading Dana White’s Contender Series debutants is a profitable long-term strategy. While it gets a little more complicated when two DWCS debutants are fighting each other, the rule should still be applied to any DWCS debutant priced as widely as Rodrigues is. While Rodrigues was incredibly impressive on DWCS and put an absolute beatdown on former CFFC flyweight champion Santo Curatolo, nothing from that fight signifies he should be a -350 favorite over anyone on the UFC roster, even another DWCS debutant in Shannon Ross. Rodrigues could very well come out and prove he was well worth the price tag, but until we have some more tape and information, nobody should be advised to bet a relative unknown at such long odds.
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