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Miami vs. North Carolina prediction and odds for Monday, February 13 (Can Tar Heels win with margin?)

By Reed Wallach

Jan 4, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Miami Hurricanes guard Nijel Pack (24) dribbles against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first half at McCamish Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 4, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Miami Hurricanes guard Nijel Pack (24) dribbles against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the first half at McCamish Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /
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North Carolina is having a similar issue as last year, but it didn’t enter last year as the No. 1 team in the country.

The Tar Heels had lofty goals after coming up short in the National Championship Game as a No. 8 seed, but the team has floundered like last year in regular season play. North Carolina is in need of some quality wins at this point in a floundering ACC with Quad 1 wins coming few and far between, making this game against Miami a must win situation.

The market has been moving towards the Tar Heels, who are considerable home favorites. Is it warranted? Let’s check out the odds:

Miami vs. North Carolina odds, spread and total

Miami vs. North Carolina prediction and pick

UNC has been a tricky team to peg all season, constantly underwhelming expectations despite its talented roster. The team is 8-17 against the spread this season, a testament to how far they have fallen off from their lofty standards.

Now, the Tar Heels face a Miami team that has been crushing for bettors this season, 15-10 against the number and 4-1 as underdogs. The team is paced by a dynamic backcourt duo of Nijel Pack and Isaiah Wong and are deadly from the perimeter, shooting 36% from 3 this season. The team is a top 10 offense and has the firepower to stay with UNC’s up-tempo attack.

The Tar Heels will look to exploit the Hurricanes on the glass, led by Armando Bacot.

UNC has a formidable frontcourt and Miami is bottom five in ACC defensive rebounding rate, but I’m not confident that the Tar Heels have the perimeter shooting to put a team like Miami away.

The team is shooting an ACC worst 30% from beyond the arc in conference play and don’t turn opponents at all (outside the top 300 nationally).

Miami has been a covering machine all year, and I think the must-win angle for North Carolina is being baked into the number. While the Heels blew out Clemson at home over the weekend, that team lacks the firepower Miami has. I think this game stays within two possessions.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.