Riviera Country Club will be loaded with stars and we have our 2023 Genesis Invitational picks and best bets for this week’s PGA Tour expert picks.
The Genesis Invitational is one of the flagship events on the PGA Tour with an ultra-popular venue in Riviera Country Club hosting and a usually loaded field. That’s been turned up to 11 for the 2022-23 season, though. Not only is this the second straight elevated event with 23 of the Top 25-ranked players in golf teeing it up, but the event’s host, some guy named Tiger Woods, is playing in a PGA Tour event for the first time since 2020.
Coming to us in the same week that Full Swing is set to release on Netflix, this should be one of the biggest weeks for the PGA Tour in quite some time. So we have to be locked in with our Genesis Invitational picks.
There were times last week when we looked quite good, but Justin Thomas to finish Top 10 (+220) was our only win after Rory McIlroy, Chris Kirk and Tom Kim let us down. Xander Schauffele did well in One and Done for our pick but didn’t come through as the outright winner. We’re slowly bleeding and need a big week at Riviera.
Let’s have that week. These are our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the 2023 Genesis Invitational.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 through WM Phoenix Open: 8-21-1, -4.414 units (0-6 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $1,038,137.22 (Xander Schauffele at Phoenix, $485,000)
PGA Tour expert picks for Genesis Invitational: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Top 10 pick for Genesis Invitational: Viktor Hovland (+250)
Viktor Hovland just couldn’t get it rolling last week in Phoenix and his approach play hasn’t been as good as it typically is. But course history at Riviera is hugely important and he has a Top 5 finish in each of the past two years. With just rough to get him in trouble really, he should thrive, especially as his around-the-green play has improved recently. I think this is tremendous value at +250 at a tournament he’s had great success at.
Pick to Win Genesis Invitational (0.5 Units): Justin Thomas (+1500)
Justin Thomas found his mojo on the weekend in Scottsdale, and that’s dangerous for everyone else. He gained 8.81 strokes over the tournament with his ball-striking, which is why he earned a Top 5 finish. Now he’s coming to this loaded event with the form that he displays when he wins. And at Riviera, he’s thrived with a T6 last year and three Top 10s in his last five starts. I think we see JT get back into the winner’s circle this week with the way he’s driving the ball and now finding his iron play.
One and Done Pick for Genesis Invitational: Justin Thomas
For all of the reasons mentioned above, we’re burning another heavy hitter for the One and Done with JT. I think he has a Top 10 floor if he hits the ball like he did last week, which is extremely profitable at these new designated events.
Genesis Invitational picks and best bets
Rory McIlroy to finish Top 5 (+190)
There are a few models that I’ve looked at after handicapping the Genesis Invitational and there are multiple that have Rory McIlroy favored. He played extremely poorly by his standard in Phoenix, but is now coming to a place he’s performed well at. Rory has three Top 10s and two Top 5s in his last four starts at Riviera, which is most important because he’s putted well here, which he didn’t last week. I think he gets back to dominant form and we get solid Top 5 value after last week’s dud.
Will Zalatoris to finish Top 20 (+140)
I’ve faded Will Zalatoris a bit since he returned from injury but I love him this week. He’s long been famous for elevating his game to contend in loaded fields and this is that (he was not playing last week). We saw it at the Tournament of Champions, his first rounds back on the PGA Tour, when he finished T11. I love for him to show up at a course that suits his game and be a factor. And for +140 to only finish Top 20, that gives us a cushion if he doesn’t contend.
Rickie Fowler to finish Top 30 (+130)
Start taking notice of Rickie Fowler before it’s too late. After finishing T10 last week, he now has four T11 or better finishes in his past seven starts. He’s also gaining more than 1.0 strokes per round on approach over his last 24. Even when he was still lost in 2021, he finished T20 at the Genesis. So in this form where he’s found his game, I love for him to get the +130 odds for a Top 30 finish.
Longshot pick to win Genesis Invitational: Adrian Meronk (+17000)
We are going way down the board for our longshot pick this week but Meronk is highly intriguing. Playing on the DP World Tour, though, he’s gaining over 1.5 strokes per round with ball-striking over his last 24 rounds and has five Top 10s in his last seven starts, including two wins. Will he win? Maybe not. But a Top 40 or Top 30 play could be incredibly valuable.
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