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Baylor vs. Kansas State prediction and odds for Tuesday, February 21 (Back Bears on road)

By Reed Wallach

Feb 13, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Adam Flagler (10) works around West Virginia Mountaineers guard Erik Stevenson (10) during the second half at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 13, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Adam Flagler (10) works around West Virginia Mountaineers guard Erik Stevenson (10) during the second half at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports /
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The last time Baylor and Kansas State met on January 7th, the Bears fell to 0-3 in Big 12 play after losing at home by two in overtime.

However, that was six weeks ago and Baylor has emerged as the best offense in the country while Kansas State has slowed up after starting 6-1 in league play, losers of four of six. The Wildcats offense has fallen off of late, but the defense has kept the team afloat, but will they be able to show up against the dynamic Baylor offense?

Here’s the odds for this projected coin flip:

Baylor vs. Kansas State odds, spread and total

Baylor vs. Kansas State prediction and pick

Kansas State’s recent slide has been mainly due to their offense. The team is bottom half nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency per Bart Torvik since the start of February. The offense is shooting 28% from beyond the arc and is bottom 15 in the country in terms of turnover rate.

While Baylor’s issue has come on defense this season, a lot of that has come on the interior, where the team is allowing Big 12 foes to shoot a conference high 56.8%. However, Kansas State is devoid of playmakers around Markquis Nowell and the team is a below average finishing on the interior (290th in mid-range field goal percentage and 107th in finishing at the rim).

Meanwhile, Baylor’s offense has been electric all season, second best in the country this season and far and away the best in the Big 12. The team is centered around their three guard lineup of Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer and stud freshman Keyonte George. With the 5’8″ Nowell a target for the Baylor ball handlers, I expect the Bears to have their way on offense.

Yes, Kansas State was able to win the first meeting in overtime on the road, but Baylor is the far better team at the moment and looks like a Final Four contender. I think the even the score on Tuesday night against a team trending in the wrong direction.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.