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Providence vs. UConn prediction and odds for Wednesday, February 22 (Expect Friars to keep it close)

By Joseph Summers

Feb 1, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Providence Friars guard Jared Bynum (4) shoots against the Xavier Musketeers in the first half at Cintas Center. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 1, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Providence Friars guard Jared Bynum (4) shoots against the Xavier Musketeers in the first half at Cintas Center. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports /
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Providence picked up a decisive upset win at home over the Huskies last month and now hopes for a season sweep on its conference rival today.

The Friars sit just one game behind Marquette in the Big East standings, while UConn looks to continue a nice stretch that’s seen it win four of its last five games.

Oddsmakers favor the home squad, as the Huskies sit as 7.5-point favorites with a tidy 13-2 record at home.

Can UConn pick up another home win or will Providence prove feisty underdogs once again?

Let’s check out the odds before diving into my best bet for the matchup.

Providence vs. UConn Odds, Spread, and Total

Providence vs. UConn Prediction and Pick

Under Ed Cooley, the Friars have been one of my favorite teams to back over the last couple of seasons. While Providence likely won’t run away with this game as they did in the first meeting between these teams, I still see considerable value in Cooley’s bunch to stay within the number and cover the spread.

Providence is a stellar 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last eight games and is even mightier as an underdog, going 6-1 ATS in its last seven. That includes four outright wins, including that one over UConn.

The Huskies are the country’s best offensive-rebounding team, picking up a ridiculous 38% of their misses. However, the Friars are one of the few teams who can hang their own, bringing in 35.7% of their own missed shots (14th nationally).

The biggest advantage for either team comes at the free throw line, as UConn ranks 334th in opponent free throw rate (39.9%) while Providence is 37th in offensive free throw rate (37.7%). We saw this advantage showcase itself in the first matchup when the Friars shot 29/35 from the line and UConn just 10/19.

While UConn has a great overall record at home, it’s covered the spread as a home favorite just three times in its last eight opportunities.

Back the Friars to keep this game close and perhaps even pull off the upset.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.