Is UNC basketball going to make March Madness?

Despite opening the season atop the polls, UNC basketball finds itself in a familiar position ahead of March Madness: firmly on the bubble.

Hopes were high for North Carolina entering the 2022-23 campaign. The Tar Heels were fresh off a run to the National Championship Game and retained pretty much everyone from that team, swapping out Brady Manek for Northwestern transfer Pete Nance, so pollsters were quick to crown North Carolina as the team to beat.

Things got off to a shaky start for the Tar Heels, who suffered an early four-game losing streak to stumble from No. 1 to unranked in the span of weeks. UNC has now put together the same sort of resume it had at this point last season, flirting with the cut line and in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, which makes one wonder if last year’s March Madness run was the outlier and their regular season performance is a true indictment of the Tar Heels.

Will UNC basketball make March Madness?

Taking a look at UNC’s resume for the tournament offers a profile that isn’t pretty compared to the rest of the bubble. The Tar Heels have a NET ranking of 48 entering Tuesday’s game against Notre Dame, which is not great, but the glaring number that sticks out here is an 0-8 record against Quadrant 1 foes.

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has made a point of emphasizing Quad 1 wins as a separator among its top teams, a criterion that should carry forward to the bottom of the field. Those wins simply do not exist on UNC’s profile, whose top victories are at home against NC State, Clemson and Charleston.

Only the Wolfpack are a likely tournament team among that bunch, which is not good enough to lift UNC’s resume, especially with none of these wins coming outside of Chapel Hill, where the NCAA Tournament won’t be played. Fortunately for the Tar Heels, two of their next four games come against tournament teams with Virginia coming to town on Saturday before Duke arrives for the season finale on March 4.

A win over the Blue Devils in Durham last season helped spark UNC’s tournament run but the lack of heft on the Tar Heels’ resume means that one win over Duke isn’t going to be enough to lock up a bid. Winning both games against Duke and Virginia, along with avoiding bad losses at Notre Dame and Florida State, would give the Tar Heels their best chance to pick up two Quad 1 wins and finish the regular season at 20-11.

Anything less than 3-1, with the one loss coming against either Virginia or Duke, would likely require UNC to win the automatic bid at the ACC Tournament. That path is fraught with peril so North Carolina’s best chance of getting back to the NCAA Tournament involves winning their final four regular season games, and even that may not be enough to help them avoid the First Four.