Braves insider makes Max Fried extension sound incredibly unlikely

With one more year of arbitration left, one Atlanta Braves insider does not feel overly confident about the team’s chances of giving Max Fried the extension he covets on the open market.

At the top of his game, Atlanta Braves fans may need to soon accept that Max Fried is walking.

After losing his latest battle with the Braves in arbitration, Fried has one more year of it before he hits unrestricted free agency in 2025. He will be in his early 30s by then. Although he has only pitched at the big-league level in a Braves uniform, Fried may have priced himself out of what Atlanta would be willing to pay. It has already dipped into the luxury tax to field this year’s team.

Mark Bowman of MLB.com does not feel optimistic about Atlanta’s chances of extending Fried.

"Would the Braves be one of the teams willing to give Fried more than $30 million per year? Right now, it doesn’t feel like it. But things could change based on how he pitches over the next two seasons, and more importantly, how guys such as Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson and Michael Soroka fare over the next couple of years."

While an extension is not ruled out entirely, this has everything to do with Fried not making upwards of $30 million annually (he’s getting $13.5 million in 2023), Atlanta being in the luxury and the other strong starting pitchers either already on the roster or in the Braves’ farm system. They could bring back Fried on a new deal, but it serves him to go ahead to free agency in 2025.

Let’s discuss why the other factors in all this are so important on if Fried is a long-term fit here.

Atlanta Braves insider pessimistic on team’s chances of extending Max Fried

In truth, I think the luxury tax implications are vastly overstated. Liberty Media and the Braves did not build The Battery in the Cumberland Area of Cobb County to house a losing product. For as long as the Braves remain competitive, it serves ownership to pump cash into this team and just win anyway. Keep in mind the New York Mets have deeper pockets with Steve Cohen in charge…

With two years out before Fried’s free agency, Atlanta has time to feel out the market and assess who it will be potentially bidding with for his services. Obviously, the Braves want him to be as good as possible these next two years so they can win as many games as they can, but that would probably indicate he is on his way out. Plus, other starters are either emerging or on the come-up.

As Bowman mentioned, Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright’s breakout seasons mean Atlanta will probably not be ace-less if Fried were to walk. Charlie Morton is a year-by-year player at this stage of his career. Should Ian Anderson or Michael Soroka return to form, that only helps the Braves. Also, Atlanta has other interesting pitching prospects, with most notably Bryce Elder.

Ultimately, Liberty Media will continue to strive to have a top-five payroll in baseball. However, general manager Alex Anthopoulos has shown over the last two offseasons he will not pay a gross premium for even an All-Star-level player. Braves Country may not love this, but he is consistent, to say the least. Regardless, Fried will be the toughest player he has to sort out what to do with.

Anthopoulos let Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson walk, so this might be par for the course.