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Purdue vs. Wisconsin prediction and odds for Thursday, March 2 (Back Badgers as home underdogs)

By Reed Wallach

Feb 22, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Connor Essegian (3) scores a three-point shot during the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at the Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 22, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Connor Essegian (3) scores a three-point shot during the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at the Kohl Center. Mandatory Credit: Kayla Wolf-USA TODAY Sports /
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Wisconsin has been on the “last four in” and “first four out” for seemingly the past month of the season ahead of Selection Sunday, and Thursday presents an opportunity for the Badgers to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.

The Badgers host first place Purdue at the Kohl Center on Thursday as small home underdogs. A win against a likely No. 1 seed could be enough to push Wisconsin firmly into the field of 68 come next Sunday’s bracket reveal.

With the bubble fixated on Madison, Wisconsin Thursday night, how should we bet it? Let’s break it down:

Purdue vs. Wisconsin odds, spread and total

Purdue vs. Wisconsin prediction and pick

The Badgers may not have guard Chucky Hepburn, who suffered a knee injury against Michigan on Sunday afternoon. While the loss of the team’s starting point guard seems significant, I believe that it could be overblown, as the Badgers are less than a point worse on offense and about two points worse on defense per 100 possessions.

Purdue’s backcourt has struggled on the road this season and the Boilermakers haven’t covered away from Mackey Arena since late January, as Zach Edey’s dominance has not been enough to get them to the window for bettors, and Wisconsin’s compact defense could keep them in this one despite lacking some interior prowess.

Wisconsin is third in adjusted defensive efficiency rating in Big Ten play according to Bart Torvik, and Purdue’s inability to turn opponents over (312th in conference road games) can bail out the Badgers floundering offense.

Further, this game is likely going to be a grind. Both teams play at a snail’s pace, outside the top 300, and every point will be meaningful. With that being said, I’m inclined to take the points with the home underdog. If Hepburn sits with his knee injury, I think any line move would be an overreaction and I still like the Badgers to cover.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.