Houston vs. Memphis prediction and odds for Sunday, March 5 (Back home underdog)

Houston is well in line for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and Memphis figures to be safely in the field, but that doesn’t stop the intrigue for Sunday’s regular season finale between the two best teams in the AAC.

The Cougars knocked off the Tigers at home last month, 72-64, but failed to cover the 14.5-point spread, can they respond with a win and cover against Memphis in a final tune up ahead of the the conference tournament?

Here are the odds for Sunday’s matchup:

Houston vs. Memphis odds, spread and total

Houston vs. Memphis prediction and pick

Houston is going to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and well deserved, but the team has struggled with Memphis throughout Penny Hardaway’s time with the Tigers. Since Hardaway took over in 2018, Memphis is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) against Houston, that includes covering as 14.5-point road underdogs on February 18th without star point guard Kendric Davis (Houston won 72-64).

Davis has been back since that game and is showing no signs of being bothered by his bulky ankle. There may not be a more impactful offensive player than the SMU transfer, the Tigers play like a top 30 offense when he is on the floor, but operate like a bottom 100 one when he is off of it, per Hoop-Explorer. 

Memphis has been the best three-point shooting team in AAC play, hitting 36% of their perimeter looks, and also are tops in free throw rate.

While Houston’s defense is arguably the best in the country, the team’s compact interior lends itself to getting bombed by a high volume of three’s — the Cougars 43% three-point rate allowed is the second highest in league games– and they also have the third highest free throw rate allowed.

Memphis can get up shots from deep and also generate free throw trips to stay within this two possession spread against a team they have historically had success with relative to expectations.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.