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ACC Tournament 2023: 1 dark horse who could start March Madness early

By Mike Phillips

CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - FEBRUARY 25: Pete Nance #32 of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts after making a three-point basket against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first half of their game at the Dean E. Smith Center on February 25, 2023 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - FEBRUARY 25: Pete Nance #32 of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts after making a three-point basket against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first half of their game at the Dean E. Smith Center on February 25, 2023 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) /
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The ACC has been in a downward cycle for a few years now. Could a dark horse emerge to cause chaos at the ACC Tournament?

When most fans think of college basketball, they think of ACC teams that have made their mark on the sport. Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia are among the programs with tremendous pedigree while previous national champions such as NC State, Syracuse and Louisville also share the conference with them.

The ACC as a whole, however, is in a bit of transition as the conference has been mediocre for the past few years. A strong showing in the 2022 NCAA Tournament skewed the results a bit, but the conference has cycled back to another subpar showing that could see as few as five teams earn tickets to dance on Selection Sunday.

Virginia, Miami and Pittsburgh are the top teams in the ACC this season but none of them are immune to being picked off in the right spot. History could repeat itself at the ACC Tournament as a familiar sleeper could surge to cause March Madness chaos.

North Carolina can cause chaos at the ACC Tournament

It has been well-documented how North Carolina began the season atop the preseason polls and is now in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament entirely. The nucleus of last year’s runner-up is still intact but the group ran into the same issues UCLA did last season after their surprise Final Four run in 2021 by sleepwalking through the following regular season.

The good news for Hubert Davis’ team is that the Tar Heels are playing well down the stretch, winning three of their final four regular-season games with the highlight being a huge victory over Virginia on Feb. 25. The only loss in that stretch was a five-point defeat against Duke on Senior Night to end the regular season, but a thin resume that includes a 1-9 record in Quad 1 games has left UNC in trouble entering the ACC Tournament.

This is a very similar spot to the one the Tar Heels were in last season, when they parlayed a win over Duke in Coach K’s last home game into a run to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. That run got North Carolina off the bubble and up to an 8-seed, where they proceeded to get red hot and get all the way to the title game.

That experience is something that North Carolina can rely on this season as every key contributor outside of Brady Manek is still around. Most bracketologists have UNC outside the field of 68 right now so they know the importance of going on a deep run in Greensboro this week.

UNC will begin its run as the No. 7 seed, where they will face Boston College or Louisville in the second round for the right to play Virginia in the quarters. That is a very manageable path for the Tar Heels, especially given the Cavaliers’ offensive struggles down the stretch of the season.

Experience matters a lot in March and few teams have more tournament experience than North Carolina. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the Tar Heels shake up the ACC Tournament again and earn a shot to make another deep run in March Madness.

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