Cleveland State vs. Milwaukee prediction and odds for Horizon League semifinal

The No. 2 Milwaukee Panthers hope for a third straight win over the No. 3 Cleveland State Vikings today as they square off in the Horizon League Semifinal.

Milwaukee beat the Vikings 68-64 back in January before pulling off an 81-72 victory less than two weeks ago. Nonetheless, Cleveland State finds itself a slight favorite in this game as each team hopes to punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament with a couple more wins.

I see betting value on one side of this matchup and think the Vikings get their revenge today. Let’s check out the odds before I explain why.

Cleveland State vs. Milwaukee Odds, Spread, and Total

Cleveland State vs. Milwaukee Prediction and Pick

Despite the Panthers’ pair of wins over the Vikings, Cleveland State is due for a victory in this series due to a few key advantages.

Milwaukee is just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine games, in large part due to an offense that ranks 346th nationally in turnover percentage (21.8%). Not only do the Panthers give up free baskets through a lack of security, but they’re also 324th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.3%).

If you turn the ball over on nearly a quarter of your possessions and allow your opponent to rebound almost a third of their own misses, it’s tough to win games. It doesn’t help matters that Cleveland State ranks 16th in offensive rebounding percentage (35.1%).

When the Panthers beat the Vikings less than 10 days ago, Milwaukee still turned the ball over 23 times and allowed 21 offensive rebounds. The Panthers won because Cleveland State shot just 3-for-20 from beyond the arc and 13-for-25 from the free-throw line.

I expect an improvement in both categories for the Vikings and believe they’ll take advantage of Milwaukee’s miscues this time around.

Take Cleveland State to improve to 15-3 in its last 18 as a favorite and get revenge on its conference foe.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.