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Mississippi State vs. Florida prediction and odds for SEC Tournament second round

By Josh Yourish

Feb 25, 2023; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith (1) reacts after a basket during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 25, 2023; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith (1) reacts after a basket during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Humphrey Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports /
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It feels like things are still pretty wide open as we get deeper into the major conference tournaments.

That means the door is cracked for either of these teams to either steal a bid in the case of the Florida Gators or to lock one up in the case of the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs seem to be one of the last teams with a bye in most projected brackets, but that still means they’re on the bubble and could really use a win in this 8/9 matchup in the SEC Tournament second round.

Let’s get into the odds for this early game in Nashville.

Mississippi State vs. Florida odds, spread and total

Mississippi State vs. Florida prediction and pick

While the Bulldogs are technically the lower seed in this one, they finished the year 20-11 overall compared to a 16-15 record for the Gators. Mississippi State also has a much better tournament case because of those wins and their elite defensive play. The Bulldogs are top 10 in defensive efficiency and adjusted defense, they only allow 60.4 points per game which is 10th in the nation and opponents are shooting 39.3% against them, also 10th.

Their last time out, they lost to Vanderbilt, but that was because the Commodores shot 12/25 from three. They can put an absolute stranglehold on a lot of teams, but it’s a matter of if they can score enough to win the game. They’re also a top 50 team in turnover margin at 2.2, which can be a very predictive stat in march. They’ll get extra possessions for their offense to try to operate, which is a big deal for a team that is 223rd in offensive efficiency.

I think Tolu Smith will be able to do just enough for the Bulldogs to win. The last time these teams met was back in January and Florida won by two and only managed 61 points while shooting 10/24 from three. If that shooting regresses some to their season average of 32.4%, the Mississippi State wins by four.

Pick: Mississippi State -5 (-110)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change