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NHL best bets today (Oilers will break Bruins win streak)

By Iain MacMillan

Feb 27, 2023; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Zach Hyman (18) protects the puck from Boston Bruins defensemen Brandon Carlo (25) during the third period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 27, 2023; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Zach Hyman (18) protects the puck from Boston Bruins defensemen Brandon Carlo (25) during the third period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports /
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We suffered some bad luck last night which resulted in an 0-2 record. The Blackhawks blew two separate leads against the Red Wings, and an empty net goal by the Minnesota Wild with 50 seconds left ruined our UNDER 5.5 bet.

Regardless, we move on as we try to get back to our winning ways tonight.

Let’s dive into my top three bets for tonight’s action.

NHL best bets record season-to-date

  • 196-180-4 (+1.88 units)

NHL best bets today

  • Devils -135 vs. Capitals
  • Oilers +145 vs. Bruins
  • Sharks +125 vs. Blues

Devils -135 vs. Capitals

The Capitals are 3-7 in their last 10 games and their hopes of making the postseason are starting to dwindle. Over that stretch of games, they rank 21st in the NHL in 5-on-5 score and venue adjusted CORSI%, which measures all types of shots taken both for and against.

The Devils, meanwhile, rank sixth in that stat and also outranks Washington in just about every other analytic you want to look at.

The Devils have been the best road team all season as well, going 23-4-4 on the road. I’ll back them as short favorites in this spot.

Oilers +145 vs. Bruins

If you’ve been reading my NHL best bets articles, you know how much I love betting against the Bruins. It hasn’t worked at all this season, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to give up.

In 5-on-5 score and venue adjust numbers, the Oilers outrank the Bruins in CORSI%, FENWICK%, expected goals percentage, and high-danger scoring chances percentage. I can’t resist betting on them as sizable underdogs with those types of numbers.

I’m sure I’ll live to regret it once again.

Sharks +125 vs. Blues

The St. Louis Blues have been one of the worst teams in the NHL lately. When you look at 5-on-5 score and venue adjusted numbers, the Blues are dead last in expected goals percentage over their last 10 games with an expected goal differential of -1.34 per 60 minutes of play.

A team with those types of numbers shouldn’t be this big of a favorite against anyone.

I’ll back the Sharks as underdogs.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.