Missouri vs. Alabama prediction and odds for SEC Tournament semifinals

Alabama forward Nick Pringle (23) celebrates with teammates after a foul was called on Mississippi State during the first half of a SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament quarterfinal game at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., Friday, March 10, 2023.Ala Miss G7 031023 An 015 /

There are a lot of top teams in the SEC and the Missouri Tigers just took one of them out yesterday.

Though Missouri was the higher seed against Tennessee, they were the underdogs in a game they ended up winning, 79-71. That win sets them up with another of the conference’s top teams, the Alabama Crimson Tide, the No. 1 seed in this SEC Tournament.

The Crimson Tide made very easy work of Mississippi State yesterday, 72-49 enroute to the semifinals. They were big favorites in that one and that’s the case again today.

Missouri vs. Alabama odds, spread and total

Missouri vs. Alabama prediction and pick

There’s one stat that is crucial in March and was crucial for the Missouri Tigers yesterday. Turnover margin. The Tigers lead the nation in turnover margin, 5.8, and yesterday they were +3 in that category against Tennessee.

For Mizzou to play at a blistering pace like they prefer to and have great turnover margin makes them so formidable in March. They just needed somebody to really step up and take over the game against Tennessee yesterday, and that guy was Kobe Brown. He finished with 24 points and nine rebounds and D’Moi Hodge’s 26 points should not be forgotten.

Now, can Brown and Hodge stand toe-to-toe with the SEC player of the year, Brandon Miller and Alabama. The Crimson Tide also prefer a fast pace. They’re second in possessions per game this season, so they’ll actually be speeding up Missouri who is 71st. Bama isn’t as careful with the basketball though, they have a negative turnover differential and turn it over more than any other team in the SEC, 14.1 times a game.

Alabama did beat Missouri, 85-64 back in January. They won that game with 25/32 from the free throw line while Missouri only went 15/19. I think Missouri has a lot of momentum now and if they perform on the defensive end, then they’ll have a chance to hang around with Alabama. I’ll take Mizzou because of the turnover margin and the way Brown played yesterday.

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