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Pitt vs. Mississippi State prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament First Four

By Josh Yourish

Jan 14, 2023; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome (4) pressures Mississippi State Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith (1) during the first half at Neville Arena. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 14, 2023; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome (4) pressures Mississippi State Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith (1) during the first half at Neville Arena. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports /
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The last four become the First Four in Dayton. Jeff Capel’s Pitt Panthers were sweating it out on Selection Sunday, but they’ve found their way into the ‘Big Dance.’

The same goes for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Both of these teams got a big win in the first round of their conference tournament and that proved to be enough to get them here. Now we get to see which team belongs.

The winner of this matchup will be the 11 seed in the Midwest Region and face Iowa State on Friday in Greensboro, North Carolina. Let’s take a look at the odds.

Pitt vs. Mississippi State odds, spread and total

Pitt vs. Mississippi State prediction and pick

This Pitt team was a huge surprise in the ACC, they went from a disaster last season to nearly winning the conference in the regular season before some bad losses down the stretch. Their latest bad loss came against the eventual ACC Tournament champions, Duke. The Blue Devils dominated them with size and shot 62.1% from the field. Pitt had no answer for Duke’s inside out attack and lost 96-69. Kyle Filipowski, Duke’s leading scorer and Center had 22 points and only played 15 minutes.

Mississippi State I’m sure is watching that tape and saying hey we can do this too. Tolu Smith is the Bulldogs’ dominant force on the inside. The 6-foot-11 forward averaged 15.8 points a game and had 28 points in their tournament win against Florida. However, the Bulldogs also got blown out the last time we saw them on the floor, 72-49 to Alabama.

Against a good defensive team, Mississippi State cannot score. They’re 314th in points per game, 291st in field goal percentage and dead last in three-point shooting. However, Pitt is 185th in defensive efficiency, so they’ll have success especially with Smith down low. On the other end of the floor, the Bulldogs are elite. They’re eighth in defensive efficiency, 10th in opponent field goal percentage, and they’ll look down Blake Hinson, Jamarius Burton and the rest of the Panthers.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change