Fansided

Providence vs. Kentucky Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament First Round

By Joseph Summers

LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY - FEBRUARY 25: Oscar Tshiebwe #34 of the Kentucky Wildcats celebrates in the 86-54 win against the Auburn Tigers at Rupp Arena on February 25, 2023 in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY - FEBRUARY 25: Oscar Tshiebwe #34 of the Kentucky Wildcats celebrates in the 86-54 win against the Auburn Tigers at Rupp Arena on February 25, 2023 in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

The No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats take on the No. 11 Providence Friars in the East Region’s first round. Both teams enter the NCAA Tournament slumping a bit, with Kentucky dropping two of its last three games (both to Vanderbilt) and Providence losing three in a row.

Nonetheless, there’s plenty of star power between a pair of programs hoping to make a deep run. Reigning Naismith Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe is averaging a double-double for the second consecutive season, while Bryce Hopkins leads a Friars squad that made the Sweet 16 last year.

Can Providence send Kentucky home early or will the Wildcats avenge last year’s first-round loss to Saint Peter’s? Let’s look at the odds before I break down my best bet for the matchup.

Providence vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, and Total

Providence vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

This is a bad matchup for the Friars, who don’t start any players taller than 6’8″ and just struggled badly with UConn’s physicality inside. Oscar Tshiebwe is set up to vanquish his demons from last season’s NCAA Tournament and I expect the Wildcats to advance as a result.

In two losses to the Huskies over the last few weeks, Providence was outrebounded by a total of 75-45. Well, Tshiebwe averages over 13 rebounds per game by himself for a Kentucky team that ranks second (to UConn) in offensive rebounding rate (38.7%). As long as Tshiebwe stays out of foul trouble, he should have a massive game.

I’m discouraged by how the Friars ended the season as well. They were just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) over their final nine games and are just 1-5 outright in their last six as underdogs. Kentucky, on the other hand, was a covering machine against teams not named Vanderbilt.

The Wildcats went 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games and should feast inside against a Providence team that ranks 157th in opponent two-point shooting percentage (49.6%). Back Kentucky to avoid another early exit and down the Friars.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.