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VCU vs. Saint Mary’s prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament First Round (Bank on Defense)

By Vinnie Portell

Mar 11, 2023; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Virginia Commonwealth Rams guard Adrian Baldwin Jr. (1) celebrates after scoring in the second half against the Saint Louis Billikens at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 11, 2023; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Virginia Commonwealth Rams guard Adrian Baldwin Jr. (1) celebrates after scoring in the second half against the Saint Louis Billikens at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports /
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Two of the best defensive teams in the NCAA Tournament will meet in the First Round when Virginia Commonwealth University and Saint Mary’s match up on Friday.

VCU won the Atlantic-10 regular season and conference tournament while Saint Mary’s likely would have won the West Coast Conference if not for Gonzaga.

It might be hard for some to figure out how to bet on a game featuring two squads with nearly identical records and similar styles of play, but we have you covered.

VCU vs. Saint Mary’s odds, spread and total

VCU vs. Saint Mary’s predictions

It’s no secret that these teams feature strong defense and a slow pace with the over/under total points set at 122.5, but I still think this number is a little too high.

Both of these teams average just over 70 points per game, but play SLOW basketball. VCU ranks just outside the top 150 in pace while St. Mary’s is 346th in the nation with just 65.7 possessions per game!

When you play that slow, you have to be effective with your shots to hit the over, and these teams are exceptional at limiting the opposition with both ranked in the top 35 in the nation for opponent effective field goal percentage.

These teams are also in the top 20 for opponent points per game, limiting the opposition to 60 points per game (St Mary’s) and 62.9 points per game (VCU).

When you have two defensive-minded teams like this, it’s not a stretch to see both teams slow the game down and lean into their strength.

My favorite pick for this game is the under, but I also like VCU +4.5, considering that the Rams average 0.4 more points per game and allow 2.9 more points per game and it’s not like the Gaels (63rd hardest schedule) played a much more difficult schedule than the Rams (99th hardest).

That’s a 2.5 point difference favoring the Gaels, which gives us some wiggle room with a spread that’s two points more than that.

Picks: Under 122.5 and VCU +4.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.