WBC tiebreak rules: Why Team USA is at risk of elimination, explained

Team USA entered the 2023 World Baseball Classic with high hopes to defend its title but could be eliminated in pool play.

In one of the biggest upsets in World Baseball Classic history, Team Mexico upset Team USA in a lopsided 11-5 victory on Sunday night. It marked USA’s first loss of the competition, but it could prove extremely costly as the USA is now in danger of missing the quarterfinals for the first time ever.

A brief breakdown of the situation: USA is grouped in a pool with Canada, Colombia, Mexico, and Great Britain. After beating Britain on Saturday and losing to Mexico, USA has a 1-1 record.

If USA wins their final two games against Canada and Colombia, they would finish 3-1 and get their best shot at advancing out of pool play. Winning those games alone doesn’t guarantee USA a spot in the quarterfinals, though.

Canada and Colombia currently hold 1-0 records each and are in good position to also finish 3-1, potentially causing a three-way tie for first place.

Since only the top two teams advance from each pool, the tiebreaker in WBC would be runs allowed per out, and the USA were just dealt a heavy loss by Mexico.

WBC tiebreak rules: USA may not advance

So how does Team USA advance? The most straightforward path is beating Canada and Colombia and hope those two teams get beat up on, too.

Losing to Canada on Monday night would put USA in a trickier pickle as the team would face a must-win game against Colombia and then hope to win the three-way tiebreaker (with some help from other teams) for the second berth from the pool.

This year’s USA squad ranks as one of the most talented in recent history and boasts a handful of World Series champs and MVPs. The one thing they may sorely be missing?

A star-studded pitching rotation.

USA is feeling the pain of not having Clayton Kershaw or Nestor Cortes, both of whom were forced to withdraw due to individual circumstances, and many of the MLB’s top pitchers simply aren’t playing.

Team USA’s pitching rotation includes some noteworthy names like Adam Wainwright, Nick Martinez, and Merrill Kelly, but by and large the majority of USA’s premier aces chose to stay with their teams during spring training: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Max Fried, Aaron Nola, Gerrit Cole, Jacob DeGrom, and the list goes on.

If Team USA whiffs on a quarterfinal appearance in the WBC in 2023, it’ll most likely be due to pitching inconsistencies. For now, USA’s path out of pool play is painstakingly clear: win, and don’t get beat badly again.