March Madness 2023 bracket predictions: Picks for Final Four, National Champion

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Jordan Miller, Miami Hurricanes (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) /

Midwest Region First Round bracket predictions

1 Houston vs. 16 Northern Kentucky

While we don’t know the status of Houston star Marcus Sasser right now, it shouldn’t matter much against the Norse. Marques Warrick is a stud for Northern Kentucky but they could struggle to find consistent offense against the Cougars, one of the elite defensive teams in college basketball, even without Sasser on the floor.

Pick: Houston advances

8 Iowa vs. 9 Auburn

8-9 matchups are notoriously tough and this is by far the toughest of the bunch by my estimation. Iowa has a super efficient offense with real highs this season but Auburn started off 16-3 and then tapered off, giving them nice heights the Tigers reached as well. Frankly, this is coming down to a gut feeling and I’m not trusting Iowa in the NCAA Tournament again.

Pick: Auburn advances

5 Miami vs. 12 Drake

Drake is undoubtedly one of the best mid-majors in March Madness. The problem is that the selection committee effectively screwed them with a matchup against an under-seeded Miami team. The Bulldogs have proven they can beat Power 5 competition with an early win over Mississippi State this season behind Roman Penn and Tucker DeVries. But Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller are too good and too efficient. This will be close, but I’m taking the Canes.

Pick: Miami advances

4 Indiana vs. 13 Kent State

Death, taxes and no chance in hell I’m trusting the MAC in March. Every non-conference matchup of note for Kent State resulted in a loss for the Golden Flashes — even if they were close losses. Indiana’s Achilles heel is the lack of size, even if that didn’t stop them from topping Purdue twice. Kent State can’t affect that, though, so I think the Hoosiers win this one pretty comfortably.

Pick: Indiana advances

6 Iowa State vs. 11 Pitt

Whoever comes out of that Pitt-Mississippi State matchup in the First Four, I have them getting past Iowa State. Even with the inconsistency of the Panthers, I don’t trust an offense that ranks 96th at KenPom against a team already building some momentum and confidence, which is what Iowa State will be in this matchup. Since I have Pitt winning, give me them to reach the Second Round too.

Pick: Pitt advances

3 Xavier vs. 14 Kennesaw State

Xavier isn’t all that interested in hard-nosed defense but has been fantastic offensively all season long. More importantly for this game, though, Kennesaw State is a small, crafty team that thrives off forcing turnovers. The Musketeers don’t fall into that trap all too often, though, and I don’t see it happening for this experienced team in this matchup either.

Pick: Xavier advances

7 Texas A&M vs. 10 Penn State

Jalen Pickett and Penn State were on the bubble entering the Big Ten Tournament but went on a run to lock up their spot. The Nittany Lions are dangerous as a perimeter scoring team and that could be tough in many matchups… just not this one. Texas A&M has a phenomenal overall defense that could limit the clean looks Penn State gets. Both of these teams are in great form but I take the Aggies based on what we see head-to-head on paper.

Pick: Texas A&M advances

2 Texas vs. 15 Colgate

Texas boasts an efficient and versatile offense. Where they do get into some trouble, though, is that they can get cold from 3-point range. That’s fascinating when you match them up against this Colgate team, the nation’s best in terms of 3-point shooting at 41%. The Raiders are suspect defensively, but three is worth more than two and I’m calling for a monster upset, especially when considering the auspicious March Madness history for the Longhorns.

Pick: Colgate advances

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