March Madness: 5 best potential games we’re looking forward to in the NCAAW Tournament

March Madness is here and we’re already mapping out tournament scenarios looking for the best potential matchups we could see in later rounds.

Now that we know the bracket for the women’s NCAA Tournament, it’s time to dive in and do some speculation. What are some games that could happen based on the bracket? Let’s take a look at five potential matchups in March/April, with one for each round after the first round.

All stats from Her Hoop Stats unless otherwise noted.

The best potential March Madness games in the NCAAW bracket:

Second Round: Villanova vs. Washington State

The Pac-12 was a gauntlet this year, and somehow Washington State wound up coming away with the tournament title. Assuming the Cougars get the first-round win against FGCU and Villanova takes care of Cleveland State, this is one of my favorite potential second-round matchups.

What makes it so compelling is how methodical both of these teams are. Both love to slow the game down to a crawl — Wazzu is 266th in pace, while Villanova is 331st. Villanova’s been better on both ends, ranking higher in offensive and defensive rating, but the Cougars are just on a roll right now, holding four straight opponents to 61 points or fewer to win the Pac-12 tournament.

This game would also offer a chance to see what Maddy Siegrist — the nation’s leading scorer at 28.9 points per game — can do against a defense that’s got the ability to lock other teams up. The Cougars can apply pressure and slow down anyone, like when they held Utah’s Alissa Pili to 3-for-14 shooting earlier this month.

If you like to watch teams just punch each other for 40 minutes — metaphorically, of course — then you should want this one to happen.

Sweet 16: Stanford vs. Texas

Stanford has looked really vulnerable lately. On the full season, the team has a plus-26.3 net rating, good for the 99th percentile nationally. But in the last five games, that number is only plus-5.0, which would rank in the 67th percentile per CBB Analytics.

While I don’t have time to diagnose why Stanford’s suddenly struggling, the short answer is the defense. For the full season, the Cardinal allow 86.5 points per 100 possessions. In the last five games, that’s ballooned to 101.0 points per 100 possessions. This team still has the pieces to be good defensively, but something’s been off.

Enter Texas. The Longhorns have been better defensively this year than offensively,  though the offense has still had some moments to shine, like when they scored 107 points in a game back in December. A struggling Stanford defense could use this game to get back on the right path…or it could help Texas kickstart a few things on offense, and we can end up with a game that is much closer than a casual viewer might expect. Factor in Texas being top 20 in scoring defense, and this one could be a grind. Texas can easily pull off a close win in a low-scoring contest here, but Stanford has a higher ceiling.

Elite Eight: Indiana vs. Utah

Stanford/Texas is likely to be a defensive grind. Indiana/Utah in the Elite Eight? It’d be all offense.

On one side, you’ve got Indiana. Sixth in scoring. Fifth in offensive rating. Second in field goal percentage.

On the other side, Utah. Fourth in scoring. Fourth in offensive rating. Fourth in field goal percentage.

And on the defensive side, you have two teams that aren’t great, though Indiana’s a good bit better — 53rd in defensive rating to Utah’s 113th.

All this is a recipe for a lot of points to be put on the board. Lovers of offense should probably want this game to happen more than they want any other game. There’d be so much offensive talent on the floor: Alissa Pili, Mackenzie Holmes, Grace Berger.

Final Four: South Carolina vs. Iowa

Duh. Everyone wants to see these two teams play because it means the top two players in the country, Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark, will be on the floor against each other.

Of course, with Clark playing point guard and Boston playing center, we won’t see much of a direct battle between the two, save for when Clark drives to the basket and gets met there by Boston. But still — all the Player of the Year discussion centers around these two. Everyone wants to see them face off.

Clark has the numbers in that battle: 27.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game for the team that won the Big Ten Tournament. Boston has the winning, though. Her 13.3 points per game might not be close to what Clark brings as a scorer, but she’s the best player on the country’s only undefeated team, and her impact on the interior is why she’s on her way to being the No. 1 overall pick in April’s WNBA Draft.

National Championship: South Carolina vs. UConn

While I wouldn’t put money down on there being a rematch of last year’s national title game, it’s in the realm of possibilities based on this bracket.

South Carolina’s case to make the title game is obvious: they’re undefeated despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, with their opponent’s average winning percentage ranking 15th in Division I. Despite that schedule. they’re the top team in offensive rating and net rating, and are second in defensive rating. This is an unstoppable machine.

UConn, meanwhile, isn’t having the same season we’re used to getting from UConn — the Huskies lost two conference games! But they also dealt with injuries all year and look their healthiest right now. Azzi Fudd looked like a star in the 12 games she played, scoring 15.5 points per game on 49.3 percent shooting.

Plus, these teams already delivered a great game back in February, with the Gamecocks winning 81-77. UConn stormed out to a 25-14 lead after one quarter, while SC then held UConn to nine points in the next quarter. Boston was dominant in that one, leading the way with 26 points, which made up for Zia Cooke’s 2-for-15 shooting night.

UConn didn’t have Fudd for that one. While she didn’t shoot the ball well in her return at the Big East Tournament, the rust would be shaken off by the time this matchup arrives. Could she change the shape of this game? Could the Huskies get a huge upset win over the heavily-favored Gamecocks?

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