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March Madness: Predicting every first round upset in the NCAAW Tournament

By Zackery Rogers

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - MARCH 02: Genesis Bryant #1 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrates drawing a foul against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the second half of the game in the second round of the Big Ten Women's Basketball Tournament at Target Center on March 2, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Fighting Illini defeated the Scarlet Knights 81-55. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - MARCH 02: Genesis Bryant #1 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrates drawing a foul against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the second half of the game in the second round of the Big Ten Women's Basketball Tournament at Target Center on March 2, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Fighting Illini defeated the Scarlet Knights 81-55. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) /
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March Madness is here and the NCAAW Tournament bracket has set us up for a slew of intriguing matchups and several likely first-round upsets.

The Women’s NCAA basketball tournament is set to kick off March 15 with the first four matchups and we can expect plenty of fireworks and upset alerts along the way.

This season, there will be two regional hosting sites in Greenville, South Carolina and Seattle Washington. The Final Four will be held in Dallas, Texas. South Carolina (Greenville 1) received the overall No.1 seed in the 2023 NCAA tournament. The other No.1 seeds consist of Indiana (Greenville 2), Stanford (Seattle 4), and Virginia Tech (Seattle 3).

Anything is possible but you shouldn’t anticipate any No.1 seeds being upset in this year’s tournament.

Let’s take a look at upsets to expect in the first round of March Madness:

No. 11 Illinois upsets No. 6 Creighton

Assuming that Illinois gets past Mississippi State in the first four this matchup can cause problems for Creighton. The Fighting Illini is a well-versed team that can beat you in multiple ways.

Illinois is physical, can lock in on defense and they average 75.9 points per game this season while shooting a team average of 37.8 percent from 3 and 46 percent from the floor. Creighton’s roster has a similar build to Illinois but a lot of their offense relies on Lauren Jensen to get off to a quick start.

Both teams like to get after it on the glass but the edge will go to Illinois who thrives off of second-chance points and crashing the glass. The Fighting Illini make the extra pass and always find the open woman for a better shot. If this team gets hot it can be a long night for Creighton.

Kendall Bostic is going to be a nightmare for the Blue Jays to stop offensively and on the glass. She is an efficient scorer who shoots 63.3 percent from the floor. Her size and presence around the rim could get Creighton’s smaller frontcourt in foul trouble.

Although both teams are evenly matched, this could be an upset for the sixth-seeded Blue Jays.

No. 14 Southern Utah upsets No. 3 Notre Dame

Obviously this upset could only be possible if Olivia Miles is unable to play in the tournament. Miles injured her knee against Louisville in the regular season finale at the end of February. During tournament play it comes down to matchups and oftentimes a lucky break. If Miles is unable to play, the pressure lessens for Southern Utah.

Utah enters this tournament with Cherita Daugherty leading the way, averaging 15.3 points per game. Neither team converts from 3 at a high level, which could result in a grind-it-out type game. Southern Utah will be able to trap or press all game if Miles is out of the picture.

Miles is a guard who isn’t afraid to follow her shot or play physically regardless of the size difference. She helps the Irish get into their offensive sets and she is another coach on the floor. Not to mention, she is the team’s second-highest scorer (14.3 points per game). Notre Dame may not be able to shake the loss of Miles if she is not able to play. Their game plan could alter which could leave the door open for Southern Utah.

Southern Utah has a strong balanced attack outside of Daugherty which includes Tomekia Whitman (12 points per game), Megan Jensen (11.3 points per game), and Daylani Ballena (11.3 points per game). The Thunderbirds have a variety of weapons that can cause a matchup problem for the Fighting Irish.

No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast (FGCU) upsets No. 5 Washington State

Both Washington State and Florida Gulf Coast are fresh off of winning their respective conference tournament championship titles.

In 2013, the nation witnessed the Men’s Florida Gulf Coast basketball team shock the world by becoming the only No. 15 seed to reach the Sweet Sixteen in history. The Women’s Florida Gulf Coast program could follow suit by upsetting Washington State. Charlisse Leger-Walker can score at a high clip and leads the Cougars in scoring. Bella Murekatete is a problem on the boards and shoots an impressive 49.1 percent from the floor.

https://twitter.com/Coach_Chambers/status/1635276076921540613?cxt=HHwWisDSqbG71bEtAAAA

Even though Washington State has the better talent, FGCU can light it up beyond the arc which can break any team’s confidence. The Eagles will be able to spread the Cougars’ defense out and play to their strength of pick-and-roll and high-low action.

Washington State can run in transition but they are better in the halfcourt when they control the tempo. Opposing teams capitalize off of the Cougars’ turnovers and the team gives up 14 points per game. FGCU thrive off points off turnovers and they average 21.7 points. Expect an upset and for the Eagles to flap their wings again in March.

No. 10 Princeton upsets No. 7 North Carolina State

The last possible upset for the first round would be Princeton taming the Wolfpack. This matchup is tricky because both teams mirror each other.

Princeton runs its offense and does not let other teams speed them up. Oftentimes, NC State tries to force the issue to score from deep. Needless to say, the Tigers can win without depending on the 3. The Wolfpack can become lackadaisical with the ball in key moments.

Kaitlyn Chen is an x-factor for this game because of her ability to make her teammates better while still being able to remain dominant. The Tigers don’t have to rely on Chen to score all of the team’s points.

Throughout the 2022-23 season, Julia Cunningham and Madison St. Rose have taken on the burden of scoring. Princeton is more of a balanced team in this matchup and can take advantage of the Wolfpack.

NC State went 3-6 overall against ranked teams this season which puts more pressure on them to win this opening game. Granted, Princeton lost both of their ranked games but they only lost by five to UConn compared to North Carolina State losing by 22 to UConn.

Princeton can match up with NC State and an upset could be brewing as we speak.

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