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Arizona State vs. TCU prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament First Round

By Reed Wallach

Mar 15, 2023; Dayton, OH, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard DJ Horne (0) celebrates a play in the first half against the Nevada Wolf Pack at UD Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 15, 2023; Dayton, OH, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard DJ Horne (0) celebrates a play in the first half against the Nevada Wolf Pack at UD Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /
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Arizona State made an impression to the entire NCAA Tournament with their demolition of Nevada in the First Four, winning 98-73 to advance to the Round of 64 to face No. 6 seed TCU.

The Horned Frogs have been no slouch this season, notching wins over the likes of Kansas and Texas in the Big 12 this season, the best conference in the country. However, Horned Frogs’ big man Eddie Lampkin is no longer with the team and the Sun Devils showcased their high ceiling on Wednesday.

Is there an upset brewing? Let’s check out the odds for Friday night’s matchup:

Arizona State vs. TCU odds, spread and total

Arizona vs. TCU prediction and pick

These two teams are very similar, anchored by its elite defense that are adept at turning their opponents over while also struggling to shoot from the perimeter. Each D is in the top third of the country in forcing turnovers while also bottom 60 in three-point percentage on offense.

TCU is particularly strong at getting to the rim and converting second chances, 338th in three-point rate and 340th in three-point percentage. While the Sun Devils are a poor defensive rebounding team (outside the top 300 nationally), Booby Hurley’s group is the second best defense in the country in field goal percentage allowed at the rim.

On the other side, Arizona State has been much better with the rock over the last month, 58th in the country in turnover rate, but they continue to struggle to score efficiently, 250th in effective field goal percentage since February 16th, a nine game sample.

I do think the key to this one comes down to the Sun Devils ability to shut down the Horned Frogs on the interior and make this into a defensive battle. While TCU is going to be able to generate second chances, the team is 248th in free throw percentage and I don’t see them winning with margin.

I’ll take the underdog No. 11 seed to keep this first round meeting interesting.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.